Thanks for the intelligent and reasoned response, I do hope you are right.
hoghead, at least those of us that have estimated higher buy out values have also backed them up with numbers. You are just trying to be a 'share-price premium estimator' perhaps based on buy outs where insiders hold little.
I am not trying to be a share price premium estimator, but I do think Teck will have to sell this to their shareholders too and it will effect our price somewhat. Not what will be used to calculate the buyout price, but a consideration in the optics of the sale.
As far as numbers I am looking at (please correct me if I am doing this wrong):
If Teck buys us out, it will back in for 75%, leaving us with 23% (the part we will be selling them). If we got $1.50/share, 1.50 x 400 million shares = $600 million for our 23%. If we extrapolate the 100% value from the 23% for 600 million we get the property value of about 2.5 billion. Isn't that one of the more optomistic valuations in the FS?
If we got $5/share the valuation for the property would be $8.7 billion ( $12 billion at $7/share). That is how I come up with my reality. Please, if I am calculating something wrong - I would love to be corrected.