Can anyone really doubt that We are in negotiations?
posted on
Feb 08, 2013 04:47PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
First, if it was business as usual, why would the lawyer have advised that there be no revealing discussions between mgmt and the common shareholders???
Our lawyer should be smart enough to assume that Teck and Teck's lawyers will not rush this, and will be thorough. He has likely advised Elmer on a staged approach with increasing pressure and to also create a parallel track whereby other interested parties are contacted again to bring them up to speed with where things are at and see if they still have an interest.
The following is hypothetical and was fun to think about:
Stage 1. Lapsed Time: 0, Jan 4, 2013
Nice/Friendly approach, no verbal or written "reminders" that Teck is "On the clock" . Teck is not stupid, they will know they are on the clock just by the very fact the BFS was delivered to them. It could go like this:
1) Phone call by Cam to his Teck counterpart, Happy new year yada yada yada. and advising them that the BFS is on its way, and please let Don know that Elmer requests a meeting when he is out next week.
2) Meeting and delivery of BFS with Elmer, Mike. Short and sweet conversation something like:
"Thanks for the assistance of your people over the last couple years, we're really excited we finally got to this Positive Feasibiliy stage, have a look at this package and we'll touch base in and see how things are progressing in say 30 days? Let's also make sure we understand who all the proper contacts you want us to have for the official filing, such as Legal, etc"
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Stage 2. Official Followup. ~Feb 4. Total lapsed Time: 31 days
A pre-prepared official registered legal letter is sent to the Teck legal contact previously obtained.
It would be a gentle yet not so subtle letter reminding them that CUU in consultation with all these Qualified firms has met the requirements of a Positive BFS and thus the terms of the contract are "in force" and "we look forward to hearing your decision as expeditiously as possible." blah blah blah
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Stage 3 Start ~Feb 8 and last up to March 1 . Total lapsed Time: 55days
I call this the Back and Forth Clarification stage. It is a stage that clears up questions, and strengthens the comraderie between Teck and their business "partner". It has the benefit to Teck of making our CUU management feel warm and fuzzy and that "Teck really likes us and let's continue to be accomodating" and blah blah blah. There will be some questions at a technical level, some at Financial, and some at strategic (further work, Elmer's short term plans for the properties, etc). Sewing seeds of "future work together" possibilities
Definately Teck will be having their own meetings during this time and already have a plan hashed out.
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Stage 4: Start ~Mar 4 and last up to March 15 . Total lapsed Time: 69 days
Within a week or two of stage 3 Teck will have requested Elmer and his representatives attend a meeting at Teck Corporate and an offer will be put forth. I expect it may be an offer with at least two options, First will be an offer per terms of contract, and second will be a Hybrid offer whereby Teck offers us the carrot on stick for CUU to "stick around and be the lead for all this other exploration work we need to get done"
Both offers will have no more than one week expiry date on them, maybe even 48 hours. Of course this will be to "Agree in principle, and act in Good Faith" to the offer subject to shareholder vote.
@ Mar 15 CUU Halts stock immediately pending nr. within 24hours another NR with details of offer. Weekend to absorb. CUU Prinicipal shareholder consulted.
@ March 20 CUU mgmt announces their "Agreement in principle" back to Teck and immediately issues another News Release stating that an offer has been recieved and the "board of directors recommends " blah blah blah. and that a vote will be held on April 22.
Then the fireworks begin. In come competing bids.
Total Lapsed Time: approx. 75 days
Based upon this entertaining scenario above, today (Feb 8) we are at day 35 beginning the back and forth stage.
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Now of course all of us armchair QBs can see things from all angles and it's "Outrageous" that it is "Taking this long!" and we could have "Had it wrapped up in 1 week!"
blah blah blah.
Have patience, and more patience. payoff is coming.
I do believe that CUU history has shown us that things indeed are happening behind the scenes
BTW I remind myself often that Mr Ernesto is MORE THAN ENOUGH reminder to Elmer to "git 'er done"
And if this Billionaire is convinced that things are where they should be and progressing nicely, that gives me comfort. Besides if he wasn't happy he probably would have nixed any option incentives for Elmer
All the best,
Fire