Re: Giordano on BNN
posted on
Feb 09, 2013 12:41PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Why would they aim for the small run in their BFS? Historically, this deposit was considered to low eq% to be mined. The contract was for a small high grade because they knew about the brechia zones. That's what they thought they would be getting if anything. Go back to the very first deep hole we did. It was enough to tell us to go big. It was still a crap shoot for the large tonnage but as more holes reported in it looked better. Back then we were looking at a "probable" positive FS. What a lot of people don't get is that even 3 years ago we were still in the "probable" catagory. If we tried a BFS then it might not have come out on the plus side. We would have had to drill the cap to have a better idea.
Then we drilled a geo tech hole and went wow. So after that we started the exploration holes because we were more certain about the "waste". Teck must have given the nod as we had a pretty good idea that a BFS would come out +$1 even if by the skin of our teeth. There was a lot of debate over the numbers when it was done up because $2.75 copper would not have been pretty. They would have had to agree in princible on the numbers for us to omit the cap drilling. Elmer said it was 100% our call but I can't see that. Maybe 95% but Teck had to have some say because this is their contract too. I bet Teck was getting excited at this point. Then came a couple big holes and everyone beathed a sigh of relief but by this time it was clear TT would not meet the timeline. This is where things got complicated.
But, it wasn't until we got the titans back that things really started to look good. When Elmer said the numbers were very good which is something he told me, he was taking into account what we expected the cap to deliver. Because the cap has to be classified as waste he can't make a public speculation about its value. And don't expect him to. We were talking geology and results so speculation is fair game as long as you understand the data you're looking at. Now take the ROV numbers and credit 30% of the cap as .20-25eq. Suddenly what he said rings true. Bump the IRR 4% before you even begin the improvements in recoveries etc.
When was the last time you saw a BFS come in on time and on cost? Once in 5 years if memory serves. Not a very stellar rate. Our BFS can only get better. It can weather a downturn in copper too. We have the ability to take advantage of nat gas trucks and stuff when that technology comes just like WRN. We're just not betting the farm on it. There's nothing in the BFS that will bite us. In fact, the estimates on several items are high in my opinion. I expect those numbers to fall. That will compensate for items I expect to rise.