The only deal that makes sense to me from Teck's perspective is to take the 75%( 70% net) and then buyout CUU. All of my share price estimates so far are based on a reserve value only using CUU's interest of 24%( I had incorrectly used 19% in a previous post). The problem with CUU taking such a deal is the very low $/lb Cu that Teck would pay. CUU needs to find a way to claw back some of that value at the bargaining table, which can only happen if they have some leverage. That's where having a viable Plan B comes in. I think these are the facts that should frame the negotiations:
1) CUU must make it clear they will sell whatever portion remains under any option selected by Teck. It's just a matter of who the buyer would be.
2) Calgary is a good place to contact a potential buyer. The Koreans, Chinese and Japanese have taken equity positions in a number of oilsand projects with multi-billion dollar amounts. They don't just connsider price, they need guaranteed access to the commodity. I suspect that's why the investor presentation is available in Chinese on the website.
3) Offering a 24% position with a $ 340 million carry on expenditures, a carry on financing, plus all of the upside potential, is an attractive deal to a third party. If you drill out the inferred resource within the pit shell, you can add value with just a portion of the $ 340 MM. CUU must present this argument to Teck.
4) Teck will want to keep all of the value in 3) to themselves. The question is how much extra would they pay for it over and above the reserve value.
If you consider a buyout offer, as an example, of $ 900 MM from Teck to CUU. That would give Teck 94% of 5.6 billion lbs cu, or 5.26 billion lbs, for about 17 cents a lb. That's a good deal for Teck when others are paying more than 30 c/lb for reserves. Plus there's the gold, the balance of the resource estimate and the entire property upside. This is just one scenario which, if realistic, would get us over $ 2.00 a share. When I consider the overall price per lb for the metal reserves instead of just focusing on the CUU percentage,I can see some upside possibilities here. I think CUU has some good leverage, but will they use it? Any comments, good or critical, are welcome. Underestimating the share value can be just as costly as overestimating.