My changed expectations
posted on
Mar 06, 2013 10:23PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Not that I assume any expertise in these matters, but as the 30 day window for Teck to reject the FS as bankable closes tonight I am trying to consider how this may come to a conclusion.
Issues I can see that need to be resolved (I'm sure there are many more too):
How can they work a deal out that everyone is happy?
Our expectations are definately higher than what I expect Teck will want to pay. Elmer has commented that no shareholder will be left behind so I would assume he really doesn't want to sell for less than $2.75? A lot of speculation here on my part - but I can't see a 100% buyout being possible as someone is going to have to look bad and neither wants to look like they were left with the short stick.
Conversely, as Vette said earlier today - how could Teck walk away from 75% for only $350 million? It really doesn't seem possible. They know we have a ton of potential targets and we have shown very good correlation with the aerial surveys and where we have poked holes. I also think the mira holds some secrets that they have been keeping from the public eye to close the deal. I'm thinking multiples of what we already have proven. Again, my conjecture here. So Teck won't be walking - no way!
So that leaves back in. I think we have proven that we would make a good, safe partner option for Teck. We have (I'm assuming) stretched timelines for Teck, have not pushed Teck on anything (haven't been banging on Teck's door for Liard shares, Elmer's 121 day comment, etc.), and they wouldn't have voted Elmer to the Liard BOD if they didn't trust him quite a bit. I think for the minimal increase in costs (that they would be spending anyways bringing the mine into production) 75% is the only sensible option? I can't see any benefit Teck in taking less (benefit to us, but they are the ones choosing back in percentage).
So if we assume 75% backin and no buyout - where does us leave us as shareholders? Once ownership is defined with the backin, what do we want to do? I know we want to build the value of the property so we can get a good dollar for our share, but it also makes sense for Teck to want this too. I would think they may want to sell off part of their portion at a higher dollar value to maximize their profits (again, see Vette's earlier posts today). Make our property look like swiss cheese this season and next spring BIG value unlocked!
This seems to be the best option for all of us (except for a $3+ buyout, but I can't see it happening). Yes, this will delay the max payout to a year or so from now - but share price should at least double from here due to the fact that we are going mining. Those that need out or are overinvested can reduce exposure hopefully above their average and hold whatever is comfortable for another year or so for a larger payout when we sell our 25% of a district (financed too).
This all makes logical sense to me, but I am no guru. A lot of you think I'm out to lunch/basher so take it with salt. Just my humble opinion anyways... We should all know what really is going to happen soon :)