Welcome To the Copper Fox Metals Inc. HUB On AGORACOM

CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Here's another proof that no one understands the story.

Hey guys,

I like to read this guy's newsletter, and he is right about MIN.V beeing undervalued, alot of people will agree (see OT board), but the way he compares Excelsior (PEA), CUU (FS), Curtis (PFS) and Western (FS) is, imo completely wrong and it shows that many investors do not go behond information that is easily accessible. Simply by looking at his own comparison table, shouldn't he want to perhaps dig deeper to try to uncover as to why CUU's FS is only 500 million with 1.229 Mt while Western is 1.057 Mt with a 2.82 billion MPV both at 8%? There is no mention of the Option agreement, the potential and the area (possible district?) and Teck's involvement.

I guess that's where our very conservative FS would hurt us (if we needed funding - Thanks again EE!)

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Most Undervalued COPPER STOCK on the VANCOUVER VULTURE EXCHANGE




Excelsior Mining MIN.V
Share Price: 12 cents
Market Cap: $6.3 million


Shares Data:
Voting Common Stock…52.87M (8.5M in escrow)
Non-voting Common Stock… 7M
Stock Options… 10.99M
Warrants… 9.57M
Fully diluted…. 80.44M



Do you know why they call it the VULTURE EXCHANGE?

Every so often prices get to such extremes on the VSE that the vultures come out of their Howe Street roosts and pick apart the dead carcasses in the wasteland that is the Vulture Stock Exchange... Errr... I mean Canadian Venture Stock Exchange, or is that Vancouver Stock Exchange? I can never keep up with all the name changes.

At current prices, opportunity abounds on this market with future mines being sold down with little or not much more discretion than your typical fast lane Howe Street Pump & Dump run by your typical greased up broker. You literally have future mines and Howe Street Pump and Dumps (which do not have a hope in hell of ever in finding an economic discovery, let alone ever building a mine) priced the same. When it comes to stocks… I have never seen such craziness in the junior mining industry.

CLEARLY THE INDUSTRY IS PRICED FOR ARMAGEDDON


That is how crazy this this market is… but hey… that just means the opportunities when these stocks do turn to ARE JUST AS BIG. So when in Rome… do as the Romans do… or when in Vancouver… just act like your typical How Street Vulture and wait until prices are at such extremes… you the vulture, appear to the mass of dead and dying companies… as a ‘White Knight.’ Prices extremes which we are currently experiencing among many junipr mining companies.

The ‘White Knights’ who suddenly appear parading with boatloads of cash to save the venture exchange are the very vultures who have come to feast upon the wasteland of dead companies that currently litter the market. We are not talking about cheap crappy companies… no…. we are taking about an unprecedented buying event when you are able to buy companies close to their 2009 lows. Some companies are even trading below their 2009 lows. Make no mistake, these very same vultures are one reason the market ends up in the perilous conditions. The attitude of looking out for ‘numero uno’ and not what is in the best interest of the company. Maybe a re-evaluation of investment goals is needed for the entire industry before we see change of how investors and financiers treat the underlying ‘investment vehicles’ who have billion dollar projects and are trying to build mines which trade for less than $10M valuation.


At any rate… if you can’t see the vultures circling in the air in the tepid venture sun…. if you can’t smell the stench of death in the air… maybe you should have another look at the sky. Maybe you should smell the air again. The vultures have come to gorge themselves on companies that have bled in the streets, they have come to feast and drink and take what is theirs and pick the meat to the bone.

DEATH IS WHAT I SMELL AND THE VULTURES ABOVE ARE SETTLING IN TO PICK AWAY AT THEIR HALF DEAD PREY.


One such company Excelsior Mining MIN.V is developing a future copper mine in Arizona is selling for cheaper than most Howe Street Pumps. MIN has been absolutely slaughtered in the last 18 months dropping from a $0.80 high to the paltry $0.12 it closed on Friday, cheaper than any other time in its short two year history. I might suggest that this is the time to start buying companies like this.



How cheap is MIN @ 0.12??? $8M raised @ $0.60 in 2011 says it all… AN 80% DISCOUNT!

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? $8M was sold at $0.60 in 2011 and the price is only $0.12 today? If I bought the financing I would probably shoot the guy that sold me that paper. Either they completely misjudged the project and priced it way too expensive or the financier is one that likes to rape and pillage its own companies liek most Howe Street Vultures. The current valuations for a development project like Excelsior’s Gunnison ISR Copper Project with 498Mt of Measured & Indicated copper is completely nutty and absolutely insane. ‘Forbes West’ should be thrown into the insane asylum for not buying shares in the open market at this price. Almost all the paper issued was priced 4 to 5 times the current market. You are getting MIN.V at an 80% discount to what the ‘pros’ originally financed Gunnison at. And believe you me… they bought in at that price thinking they would make money and Excelsior would go higher, not lose nearly 70%-80% of their original investment.

  • $3M at $0.50 in fall of 2010
  • $8M at $0.60 in spring of 2011
  • $1M at $0.30 in summer of 2012

MIN.V is one of those stories where you just scratch your head and wonder why it has gotten this cheap? Oh never mind, it trades on the Vulture Exchange where the savvy pros wait till companies are near extinction before taking large percentages of companies that should never have been trading at that price in the first place. Like where MIN is today.

Who wants a HUGE CHUNK OF MIN.V CHEAPER THAN ANY ONE ELSE HAS GOT IT?


I am sure you could do a million at $0.15 in a second, the way copper is breaking down… hell, MIN might do a million at $0.10 tomorrow if you promise to by another $1M on the open market.



In-situ Recovery: Bigger is not always better

Gunnison isn’t the biggest or the best of the copper projects. It doesn’t have the highest Net Present Value and projects like Schaft Creek or Casino will produce 3 to 4 times the rate of Gunnison or Florence, but what they don’t make up on MASS VALUE they make up in efficiency. MIN and CUV’s ISR projects in Arizona are undeniably the biggest bang for your investment buck anywhere on the market. When times of uncertainty are over the entire industry; ISR projects like MIN’s Gunnison and CUV’s Florence are much easier to put in production at a much lower cost than their billion dollar cousins. They are also located in the US which makes these two projects strategic to US interests. Especially in an age where the 'GRID' is expanding and EVERYONE IS ELECTRIFYING.

Copper was a strategic metal in the past and it will continue to be in the future even if industrialization and urbanization are fading trends, which they are not. Remote locations in BC and the Yukon whose capital costs are likely underestimated are much more likely to get mothballed over a US ISR project whose capital costs are less than 10% the capital cost of typical 125,000tpd copper-gold mine. An added benefit to ISR projects in the current escalating cost environment is that while most massive mines being built today are facing increased costs, Curis’ Florence Project capital costs dropped 18% from PEA to prefeasibility. This can only bode well for MIN’s Gunnison Project which is expected to be upgraded to prefeasibility later this year.

What makes Gunnison ideal in this type of market environment over a project like Schaft Creek or any of the other massive copper porphyry projects in the Pacific Rim?

  1. LOW OPERATING COSTS. Gunnison PEA states $0.68 operating cost per pound and Florence prefeasibility shows $0.79 per pound.
  2. EXTREMELY LOW CAPEX. The Gunnison Project has an initial capex of $324M while Florence comes is $198M.

Freeport would go out of business trying to manipulate the price low enough to put Gunnison or Florence out of business. So where is the risk? Most cheap copper mines especially in Chile and Peru are losing their cost advantage as labor heads towards a ‘global wage.’

Follow the link to watch a You Tube Video about in-situ mining and Excelsior's Gunnison Project...



Financing risk? … Gunnison & Florence together cost 1/8 the capex of Copper Fox’s Schaft Creek.

Production risk??? …$0.68 and $0.79 per pound for Gunnison and Florence ISR Copper.


In-situ recovery makes Excelsior’s Gunnison ISR Copper Project competitive against any copper project in the world at the fraction of the price. They are generally not huge producers because ISR needs an oxide resource to be effective which is generally a small portion of any deposit, but in Arizona the porphyry copper deposits are largely oxidized making them ideal for in-situ recovery. Thus the market is a niche market and impossible to supply the entire copper market which is a reason this style of copper recovery largely fell out of use in favor of conventional mining of the entire multibillion tonne copper deposits. ISR copper projects are thus a niche market, but important in this day in age of escalating prices simply because the method of recovery is inexpensive when compared to conventional mining which largely depends on labor and fuel as two main operating expenses.

There are no ISR copper mines in production, but ISR works well with uranium recovery and other minerals like potash and was originally designed for copper recovery. The downsides of ISR is that it does not maximize the recovery of the resource nor is it very effective when trying to leach a non-oxidized deposit so the entire resource needs to be oxidized, but it is fast becoming the most inexpensive and cost effective way to recover copper from smaller mostly oxidized copper deposits like the 500Mt Gunnison ISR Copper Project or Curis’ Florence. There is a reason Forbes West has invested in Excelsior and Hunter Dickinson is riding Curis. These two ISR projects in Arizona are EASY MONEY and LOW RISK (low CAPEX, LOW OPEX).



Undeniably the Cheapest Copper Development Project on Any Market

Excelsior Mining is undeniably the most undervalued copper stock on the venture market. Many mining stocks will trade at a discount for a while because of persisting market conditions. The need for exploration is declining while the need to finance and develop some of the next generation of mines is upon us. The focus over the next 10 years in the mining sector while be to finance and bring some of these development projects into production and MIN-V Gunnison project is definitely a project that will produce copper under any economic condition and has the ability along with Florence to supply the US with 150M lbs of copper per annum for next quarter of a century. At a time when copper is still critical for many things our society needs like expanding ‘The Grid.’

  • MIN - The PRICE IS RIGHT @ $6M… Essentially a GROUND FLOOR OPPORTUNITY
  • High NPV @ $883M (pre-tax)
  • High IRR @ 40% (pre-tax)
  • Fast Payback @ 2.7 years
  • LOW CAPITAL COSTS of $325M
  • LOW CASH COST PRODUCER @ $0.68 per pound of copper


HUGE LEVERAGE! The best potential copper investment on the market with a $6M market capitalization which is less than 1% of the Gunnison’s Project’s pre-tax NPV! MIN is currently priced as cheap as they come.

BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK. It is not like they have to spend $5B to get those discounted cash flows like most other copper projects. For every $1 spent MIN returns $2.73 in Net Present Value. Copper Fox returns $0.16 per $1 spent on capital costs. WOW!


Potential for Even Better Economics… Improved Recoveries/Faster Leach Times

MIN has an excellent chance of improving the economics when they upgrade the project to prefeasibility which is due to be released in the second half of 2013. Recently the company announced leach times 25% faster than used in the PEA from and announced dramatically improved recoveries greater than 80% which are more in line with what Curis is estimating at around 70%.


A COMPARISON OF IN-SITU RECOVERY TO CONVENTIONAL MINING


Exclesior Mining Corp MIN.V Curis Resources CUV.V Copper Fox Metals CUU.V Western Copper
WRN.TO
Gunnison (ISR) Florence (ISR) Schaft Creek Casino
Resource:
M & I (Mt) 498.4Mt 429Mt 1,229Mt 1,057Mt
Grade 0.33% 0.32% 0.44%CuEq 0.49%CuEq
Economics:
Stage PEA Prefeasibility Feasibility Feasibility
Initial Capex $324M $196M $3.256B $2.456B
Pre Tax IRR 40% 38% 10.13% 20.1%
Pre Tax NPV $883M @ 8% $875M @ 7.5% $513M @ 8% $2.82B @ 8%
Life of Mine 25 21 years 22 years
Payback 2.7 years 2.4 years 6.5 years 3 years
Copper Price $2.50 $3.00 $3.25 $3.00
Operating Cost per lb. of Cu $0.68 $0.79 $1.15 (0.81)
Total Copper Production 1.706B lbs. 1.695B lbs. 4.875B lbs. 3.762B lbs.
Recovery (ISR only) 54% 70% - -
Valuation Metrics:
Market Cap as per TMX $6M $43M $251M $78M
Market Cap to NPV (Appreciation potential) >1% 5% 49% 3%
NPV to CAPEX
(Bang for your buck)
2.73 times 4.46 times 0.16 times 1.15 times


China nearing the end of growth? Have fundamentals changed that much in 18 months?

Is the end of the commodities super cycle really here?
Will demand for copper, iron ore and other industrial commodities just fall off the face of the Earth?

Has the Western World solved its Debt Crisis? Has the need to stockpile assets abated? Has the worlds Central Banks stopped printing cash? Are they going to any time soon?

Has China all of a sudden stopped building its grid? Has China stopped urbanizing?
Has the world stopped growing?



Maybe a few minor tweaks to the theme…

Maybe a few modifications and changes need to be made to the outlook in the base case for what we are too expect in the future when it comes to China and the rest of the developing world which is expanding and consuming and entering into the current global financial system creating wealth for themselves.… but in no way has anything really changed in the world over the last 10 years and in no way are things about to change in the next ten years. We are right smack dab in the middle of this materials ‘supercycle’ which is not yet over and what we are experiencing right now is more of a lull than any real curtailing of global growth.

If the themes were over, underlying commodities prices would be in the gutter with the stocks but they are not and still elevated well above long term averages while most stocks trade at shell values.

  1. China is still urbanizing and continuing on a trend.
  2. India has yet to urbanize and most likely will start to urbanize as wealth gap between Indians and Chinese widens over the next 15 years.
  3. Maybe there is a shift in China towards vertically integrating their economy and value and creating wealth for its citizens, but that is a shift the will occur over the next generation and not overnight like some think.
Our commodities stocks are at pathetic levels because the developing world is broke! Commodities prices are at elevated levels because the developing world is growing and has all the money. Seems pretty simple to me.

You have stalled growth in 1/6 of the world’s population and 5/6 of the world’s population stilling wanting and needing to grow. China already has the ability to become the world’s bank and whose GDP will pass the USA sometime in the next 10 years. China can fund the world’s growth and leave the broke US and Europe in the dust. The Chinese have the capacity to now dominate the world financially. As China’s economy vertically integrates with decreasing dependence from Europe and US to buy Chinese to support growth, the Chinese economy will move closer towards American standards. If China has a GDP per capita of the US which is the trend… their economy will dwarf anything ever seen. The Chinese will be the consumer market of the second half of the 21st Centruy… 10 to 100 times bigger than what Baby Boomers currently represent. The future for consumerism will be China.



Chinese Urbanization Table

2012 2020 2030
Population 1,347,350,000 1,424,676,272 1,527,604,386
Growth Rate 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Urbanization Ratio 51% 60% 65%
Urban Population 687.148,500 854.805,763 992,942,851
Net Migration to Urban Centers - 167,657,263 138,137,088
Capacity of Urban Centers at Current Levels 90,000,000 -77,657,263 -215,794,351
Estimate persons per Unit 1.5 1.5 1.5
Housing Units Needed 60,000,000 unit surplus 51.7M units deficit 143.8M units deficit


















The table above should highlight just how much more growth and infrastructure is needed in China.

At the current predicted rates, by 2020 all that empty real estate you see on CNBC will be occupied and another 50M housing units will need to be built to hit the 60% mark which is the equivalent of 10 new Lower Mainland’s. Another 150 million units in the following decade will be needed just to meet China’s stated urbanization target of 65% by 2030. Only then will the rates slightly tail off but China’s goal is 70% to 75% by 2050… so not really much tailing off if those targets are accurate.

Want to bet against China? Not me. Not this time in history.

There is no way that china is finished with growth. IT IS INCONCEIVABLE AT THIS POINT.

There are some new trends appearing which astute entrepreneurs will take advantage of, but the trend for infrastructure build out and vertical integration in China including being a leader in electrification and GRID build out has me thinking copper will be in demand for at least the next generation… perfect for a low cost mine like Gunnison in a rising cost environment. Graphene could take its place eventually, but its price will be cost prohibitive for a very long time.


Excelsior Mining… A diamond on the Vulture

I don’t care what copper does over the short term. It has broken down out of a multi-year triangle which is never good for upside appreciation over the short term, but the stocks are so cheap they can’t get any cheaper. Use any price drop to start to pick up your favorite companies because most of these companies will not get any cheaper and if they do it will only be fractionally compared to the 80% to 90% loss in value of many of these companies trading on the venture market.



There is no other future copper producer sitting on the market for $6M.

Undeniably MIN is the best priced investment when it comes to highly leveraged future mine. This is the BEST COPPER INVESTMENT on the market at the current price.
  • When compared to its peer CUV.V it still trades at an 85% discount which is a pricing mismatch for two projects that are nearly identical.
  • When compared to other massive multi-billion cooper projects MIN looks attractive because it costs less than a tenth the capital of a major copper mine.
  • When compared on an operating basis to ANY COPEPR MINE, ISR projects have the cheapest operating costs and with minimal labor and fuel requirements are not exposed to two main factors in rising operating costs.
There is no better copper investment on the open market and soon you will see the vultures circling over this ‘Diamond in the Rough.’ If you were looking for a TOP PICK COPPER STOCK that you could overweight on a super cheap entry… there is no better stock than MIN.V…

I have said it 10 times already, but I will say it one more so you remember…
THERE IS NO BETTER COPPER STOCK AT ANY PRICE THAN Excelsior Mining MIN.V at $0.12.


Christopher Skidmore

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