IMHO, valuation of a mine cannot be just the pounds in the ground. What value are minerals that you can't access? IMO, pretty much nil. The NPV in the FS was conservative but even that should not be considered a floor for our share price.
From my perspective, probability should play a key on our worth. Let's just say for arguments sake that Schaft Creek is worth X dollars and because of this our proportionate share is $3/share (buyout price possibility). I know we can argue a plethora of different valuations but lets just assume. If we don't have any chance of producing Schaft, I would argue we would be worth close to nil (0% X $3/share). It appears the market is setting us at ~20% chance to get this mine into production (20% X $3/share) ~ 60ยข, perhaps still pretty risky.
So now we sit at the same price as we did pre announcement of the JV. Can anybody correct me in that we arguably increased our chances of getting Schaft into production?
Buying CUU is still a bet, but IMO it is a safer bet today then two weeks ago. Our chances of getting Schaft to production is higher than ever. Power - done, Tahltan - done, Political issues - none, Road - completed, Financing - Teck to commit, Feasibility - conservative and positive. The sentiment seems to be regarding control and trust, whether Teck has enough incentive to advance Schaft. I haven't seen any evidence to the contrary other than they perhaps simply have the ability to delay.
My only worry is the driliing results - there appears to be confidence on this board that the East will provide strong results. I'm optimistic but I'm wondering where the confidence is coming from since we don't really have concrete data yet.