Teck currently has two major copper projects that are nearing development: QB2 and Schaft Creek. Both projects anticipate submitting their environmental assessments this year with permits being received at the end of 2014. QB2 will be in production in 2018 and Schaft Creek will be in production in 2020.
As I have mentioned before, I don't see Teck going ahead with both QB2 and Schaft Creek at the same time. It's possible that Teck sells one of the projects but now is not a very favourable time to sell assets. I think one of the projects will get the green light and the other will be shelved for many years.
Fortunately Teck does not have to make a construction decision on QB2 until the end of 2014. This gives us a small window to prove that Schaft Creek is the deserving candidate and I think that's part of Teck's plan. I suspect Teck's drilling program at Schaft Creek might be to determine whether we are the top project.
We have several things working in our favour:
1. QB2 is a very expensive commitment ($5.8B). Teck may want to preserve cash so that it can fund it's other projects (oil sands).
2. QB2 is located in Chile which has had some troubles on recent projects (power supply, environmental issues, etc)
3. QB2 has two minority partners that might not be interested in moving the project forward.
There are several areas where QB2 has the distinct advantage over Schaft Creek. However, in the end, Schaft Creek represents the lower risk project (capex and political) which might be Teck's preference with the current metal prices.
I hope we get some more info with Teck's earnings release.