Thank-you golfyeti and prospekt for your valued opinions. They are very articulate and backed by sound reasoning.
I am not as articulate as I tend to generalize and my view of what has transpired in plain terms is black and white with a healthy dose of gray added.
I realize that my pessimism rubs a lot of people the wrong way but that is not going to stop me from expressing my views.
Allow me to make a few points and then rebuttals are more than welcome.
Here are the obstacles i see before me for this venture to proceed. I have no doubt that it will proceed, just that the timeline I see is not in the foreseeable future.
Metal prices have to rebound at a minimum to bfs base line
The base case metal prices and exchange rate were as follows:
• copper – US$3.25/lb
• gold – US$1,445/oz
• silver – US$27.74/oz
• molybdenum – US$14.64/lb
• exchange rate – Cdn$1.00:US$0.97.
The fact that Teck was able to back in for an initial payment of approximately $24M I believe is the number was a give away imo.
The fact that the old Salazar agreement was scrapped puts Teck completely in charge with no obligation to proceed until circumstances make it conducive to do so.
Teck has a lot on its' plate right now.
They are considering a bid on Las Bambas which goes into production in 2015 and if successful would put less pressure to proceed with Schaft Creek in the near future imo.
They are also proceeding with their Fort Hills project which will surely be a priority
I don't know the expense required for these three projects and I'll leave that to the numbers guys but I sincerely doubt that Teck would proceed with all three.
I would think that SC would rank #3 imo
The drilling results are crucial to a production commitment near term.
The drilling results are also crucial to attracting an offer from a third party that we can take to Teck for a fror.
If the drilling results bring a commitment from Teck to proceed you will see a much more optimistic slant to my posts
Feel free to critique and as always jmho