Re: Is my Thinking Wrong
posted on
Mar 20, 2014 11:07AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
In the eys of a major our 25% ownership of the project won't be valued so much by capital expenditure amounts credited to our side of the balance sheet, but rather our 25% ownership will be valued based on NPV.
So, again, we got our due from Salazar plus a $60 million dollar CASH BONUS that has allowed us to avoid massive shareholder dillution. That counts for a lot as well.
I have yet to hear any kind of a real rebuttal to this. JMHO
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Respectfully, everything you have said is valid. BUT, you are basing everything on the assumption that Teck will proceed with a production decision in a timely manner. If they do proceed with a production decision soon, I completely agree it will all work out good for us.
I admit I have a tendency to look at what could happen if things don't proceed as we expect. I tend to focus more on what is the risk vs what will happen if all goes to plan. I am a big believer in insurance - just my personality I suppose... What were sold on by management regarding Salazar/Liard is that we were protected - it was a big reason why I invested so heavily (for my comfort level). I felt protected. Some see this part of my personality as bashing, but it isn't I assure you...
When the BFS was released, I felt blindsided. When the JV was announced I also felt that way. Where did all our protection go? This was now riskier than I was confortable with - but I made the mistake of not selling on either of those events on the hope I could recover some or all of my losses. That may still happen, but its not a sure thing IMHO. This is all about MY comfort level, many have a higher comfort level than me and sometimes I envy them. The world would be a boring place if we all saw everything the same way.
Back to my point - we have no protection now if Teck intends to shelve it and our 25% is not saleable until that production decision is made. We are all hopeful this will come soon (mysewlf included). Thier recent guidance listed us last in a list of several projects that included a $2 billion spend on Fort Hills. We really only got one sentence that said very little work done in 2013 and some work to be done in 2014 (but no drilling). They were quite frank regarding the other projects, I personally assume they were frank about us but others have different theories that have merit too.
So regarding the 60 million in cash and 60 in development credits you explain above - until that time that a production decison is made, all we get is 23 million, and 25% the property with its value are completely locked up (virtually un-saleable unless at fire sale price).
What if they decide to wait a decade? Or more? I hope thats not the case, but you must admit we have zero protection against this possibility - as unlikely as that may seem now.
I don't see anything guaranteeing that this will be built. Sure they are studying it further this year and going over the work we have already completed - but 2.5 million spent for the full year (including paying their own employees to study this) isn't building my confidence that this is a priority. It is a big project and has a relatively big capex. With 2 billion committed to Fort Hills they have already committed the bulk of their cash. There has been no news from Teck or Copper Fox that indicates this is proceeding in the near future (without making assumptions or reading between the lines).
Prospekt's thoughts on what is happening are very valid and could certainly be correct and we are sold in the fall. I sincerly hope that is what happens. I don't mean to be seen as discounting yours or Prospekt's take on this
I just feel there is an uncomfortable amount of risk (for me personally) and I am the type of person who would prefer a bird in the hand vs a few in the bush. Sometimes it seems that we are ignoring the risks here and I feel compelled to point them out. Sorry if that offends anyone.
My personal opinion that we should have held strong and kept our protections and risked losing Teck as a partner are just that - MY opinion. I have a different comfort level than many here, and sometimes I envy that.