I think we've hit bottom because the Chinese State Reserves Bureau started buying again. Because they don't report their numbers we have to guess but it looks like they may purchase a net 300,000 tonnes of copper this year.
Last time the SRB bought large amounts of copper was in 2009 when the price dropped below $3K. Now they started buying when the price dropped below $7K. They have supposedly said they will buy large amounts if it falls below $6600. They've already said they were thinking of bringing forward their 2015 plans to add to stockpiles, intending on holding a total of 2 million tonnes.
This might indicate they see a floor in copper. It might also indicate they are anticipating the last year of surplus copper and the subsequent price rise afterwards.
Our stock in particular might ride through the summer on the Van Dyke results which we already know because they are twinning holes. We can expect 7 drill hole results with an average of .52% copper. We can also expect the PEA from the QP at Moose Mountain so that the Van Dyke desposit can actually be reported as a 43-101 report.
It's not what we're hoping for, but it's not nothing. If Teck does all their internal reports and then decides to buy us out we're not going to hear anything until after the summer anyway. (I don't think there will be a production decision made before the EA is even filed, and possibly not until the permits are issued.)
Here's my timeline from January 30, 2014, and I think we're following the order, though the drilling of AZ appears to be delayed:
If the 2014 drill program is weak, then I think we are closer to the end. If the program is strong, then I think they will need to incorporate that data once they get it and that's putting us through the end of this drilling season before they begin.
1. grey area where nothing happens, nothing is announced and nobody knows what is going on in SC, spring-summer 2014
2. Drill Results from AZ, spring-summer 2014
3. New PFS from AZ released to much fanfare, summer 2014
2. buyout SC, late summer 2014
3. Desert Fox spin-off, early fall 2014
