Well, when I said about a year ago, I guess I should have said a year and a half...

Looking at the LME warehouse levels on kitco (check out the 5 year chart)...

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#lmestocks_5years

in late 2012, early 2013, the levels were about exactly where they're at now.

I agree with your points above. My understanding is that China was previously using copper as collateral, but the banks (or government) decided this was no longer a safe hedge to borrow against. This led to speculation that there would be a huge surplus as China would flood the market with cheap copper. That led to a recent decline to kick copper back to under $3/lb. Copper has remained resilient at around the $3 mark, and despite what I see as very deliberate manipulation, doesn't seem to want to budge below that point. I see no reason why copper should not remain strong and should be valued well above its current price.