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Stefan Ioannou: Copper, Nickel and Zinc Won’t Be Cheap for Long

The all-powerful U.S. dollar is currently hammering base metals and base metal equities. Haywood Securities Mining Analyst Stefan Ioannou says that increasing demand and near-term supply shortages make base metals a bargain that won’t last. In this interview with The Mining Report, Ioannou argues that juniors with good deposits and low costs are in a unique position to benefit, and lists several companies that look to do just that.

The Mining Report: What effect is the strong U.S. dollar having on base metal prices and base metal equities?

Stefan Ioannou: Base metals are priced in U.S. dollars, so as the dollar rises in value, base metals fall in value. Right now, copper is testing the $3 per pound ($3/lb) level, and zinc is drifting down toward $1/lb. And, of course, lower base metal prices are reflected in lower valuations of base metal equities.

TMR: Why do you believe the world faces a copper deficit in the near future?

SI: On the supply side, the majors have in the last few years focused on cutting costs at existing operations. That’s obviously great for their bottom lines today. However, it also means new mines and greenfield developments are being deferred. So by 2017–2018 we will face the consequence of a lack of new supply, which is demand outweighing supply.

TMR: What’s your view of the junior copper space?

SI: Everything I cover has come down in valuation. I think there is opportunity here. The best place to start is with the producers because they are generating cash flow and have positive balance sheets. One such company is Copper Mountain Mining Corp. (CUM:TSX). Its Copper Mountain mine in British Columbia—owned 25% by Mitsubishi Corp. (8058:JP)—has had a long start-up. The company has just installed a new secondary crusher, which is finally going to bring it to nameplate capacity: 35,000 tonnes per day (35 Kt/day) of throughput. This is the turning point, and I think Copper Mountain Mining is poised for a rerating.

TMR: You just raised your target price, correct?

SI: Yes, from $3 to $3.50. We just saw the company’s Q3/14 production numbers. The crusher integration went smoothly over the latter half of the period and was handling over 35 Kt/day in late September, which should set the stage for a strong Q4/14.

http://www.vantagewire.com/2014/10/stefan-ioannou-copper-nickel-and-zinc-wont-be-cheap-for-long/