I have been actively investing for about 4 years (I know - it isn't very long), but I would say that I have come to realize that many so called analyst have a way of mistating the reality or containing half truths.

Case in point is this article: http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/goldman-says-copper-bear-market-to-last-years-as-gluts-build/

They state "Copper slid along with nickel, zinc and crude oil this year as commodities were pummeled by the slowdown in the biggest user of base metals and excess supplies. ". But I say what excess supplies? The truth is that yes inventories are higher than a year ago BUT there certainly is NO glut. For LME inventory levels are dramatically lower than 2 years, they are now higher than 3 years ago, but they are lower than 4 and 5 years ago. It seems to me that this overall a very balanced market.

The also state "While the retreat in copper prompted Glencore to announce supply cuts at operations in Africa, Goldman Sachs said that such reductions served only as a confirmation that demand was weak." But I say No that isn't true at all. It is the Low prices that prompted the supply cuts, not weak demand.

They state "There will be about 530,000 tons more global supply than demand in 2016, Goldman Sachs said, paring its estimate from about 670,000 tons. The worldwide surplus was seen at 566,000 tons in 2017, 626,000 tons in 2018 and 657,000 tons in 2019, it said.". But I say, Huh? Where do you get these kind of numbers from? Well, I have to admidt that they might be right, but I say there hasn't been any confirmation in copper demand to confirm this. The only thing that has dropped dramatically is the price. Copper inventory at LME have dropper 50,000 tons since it peaked this year about 1 month ago. And we are only just starting to the affects to the mine shut downs.

They state "Global stockpiles were seen increasing by as much as 1 million tons between November and March,Goldman Sachs said in the report, which was titled ‘Copper’s bear cycle still has years to run.’ Holdings in LME-tracked warehouses stood 322,900 tons as of Thursday, according to bourse data.". Again I say that they could be right, but why can't analyst see that even if this is true - that to have inventories of 1.3 million tons is not really that big in a 22 million annual market. Isn't it a good thing to have more than 1 month supply of copper on hand - how can they call it a glut? They behave as if the supply and demand can be quickly changed - it is only the demand can change quickly but the supply takes many years to bring into market.

But we know these things - so we wait.

Another arictle is which says much of the same thing: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/25/us-copper-prices-idUSKCN0RP2AF20150925

also this article talks about how the copper imports have actually increased (not decreased). "Refined copper imports into China rose 12 percent from a year ago to 262,691 tons in August. " http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/chinas-bonded-copper-stockpiles-plunge-to-lowest-in-three-years/