Do you have a vague idea on what 1000$ invested in CF shares 6 years ago would be worth in 5 years, considering a 2% inflation and 5% yearly dillution begining in 2016? The short answer is nearly 400$.

If you consider you could have put that 1000$ into a stock (not even mentionning Teck thats up 300% in 3 months) or a fund that grows 10% per year, for 10 years. (less inflation = 8% ish)

You are looking at over 2200$ vs 400$. And that 400$ is using your buying average.

If your avg is 1.30 now you have 40$. OK now for a 1G buyout in 5 years, 18 times current sp = 720$.

If your avg is .65 cents now you have 80$, For a Buyout of 1G, now you have 1440$.

2200$ vs 1440$ (at a hilarous 1 billion buyout price)

Uh oh, what went wrong????

This is napkin mathematics but this just to give you an idea. I wont hire a actuary to calculate this ok?