Demand growth for some metals may exceed 1 000% – World Bank

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – A new World Bank report highlights the potential impacts that the expected continuing boom in low-carbon energy technologies will have on demand for many minerals and metals, including Southern Africa's platinum, manganese and chrome.

Using wind and solar energy, and energy storage batteries, as key examples of low-carbon or “green” energytechnologies, the report on the growing role of minerals and metals for a low-carbon future examines the types of minerals and metals that will likely increase in demand as the world works towards commitments to keep the global average temperature rise at or below 2 °C above preindustrial levels.

ADVERTISEMENT

IMAGE: HTTP://US-ADCENTRE.CREAMERMEDIA.CO.ZA/RV/MW/6CB18F0D6D100523C4310F9BFDB65AF9.GIF

 

Minerals and metals expected to see heightened demand include aluminium, copper, lead, lithium, manganese, nickel, silver, steel and zinc plus rare earth minerals like indium, molybdenum and neodymium.

The most significant example is electric storage batteries, where demand for aluminium, cobalt, iron, lead, lithium, manganese and nickel, could grow by more than 1 000% if countries take the actions needed to keep global warming at or below 2 °C above preindustrial levels.  

The report shows that a shift to a low-carbon future could result in opportunities for mineral-rich countries but also points to the need for these countries to ensure they have long-term strategies in place that enable them to make smart investment decisions.

In readiness for growth in demand, countries will need to have appropriate policy mechanisms in place to safeguard local communities and the environment.

World Bank energy and extractive industries head Riccardo Puliti states that with better planning, resource-rich countries can take advantage of the increased demand to foster growth and development.

“Countries with capacity and infrastructure to supply the minerals and metals required for cleaner technologies have a unique opportunity to grow their economies if they develop their mining sectors in a sustainable way,” Puliti adds in a release to Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly Online.

The future demand for specific metals is not only a function of the degree to which countries commit to a low-carbon future, it is also driven by intra-technology choices.

The low-carbon technologies that emerge as most applicable and beneficial, will play an important role in defining the commodity marketplace of the next 50 years.

For example, the three leading forms of alternative vehicles — electric, hybrid and hydrogen — each have different implications for metals demand, with battery electric vehicles requiring lithium, hybrid vehicles using lead and hydrogen-powered electric vehicles using platinum.

Demand for individual metals and minerals will reflect the component mix of low-carbon technologies, corresponding with economic changes and technical developments. To position themselves well, countries will need reliable sources of economic data and market intelligence, as well as the capacity to turn that information into plans, investments and sustainable operations.

Based on current trends, it is expected that Chile, Peru and potentially Bolivia, will play a key role in supplying copperand lithium and Brazil is a key bauxite and iron-ore supplier.

Southern Africa and Guinea will be vital in the effort to meet growing demand for platinum, manganese, bauxite and chromium.

China will continue to play a leading role in production and reserve levels in practically every key metal required under low-carbon scenarios.

India is dominant in iron, steel and titanium and Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines have opportunities with bauxite and nickel.

An environment-friendly technology future has the potential to be materially intensive, with increased extraction and production activities putting pressure on local water systems, ecosystems and communities, the report warns.

As countries develop their natural resource endowments, it will be critical that sustainability, environmental protection and options to recycle materials be integrated into new operations, policies and investments, it adds. 

‘The Growing Role of Minerals and Metals for a Low-Carbon Future’ report is intended to contribute to a richer dialogue around the opportunities and challenges for resource-rich countries that a low-carbon future presents.

The analysis is designed to support policymakers and other stakeholders in the areas of extractives, clean energy and climate change to better understand the issues involved and identify areas of common interest.

Mining Weekly Online can add that South Africa's abundance of vanadium also places the country in a position to become more involved in vanadium's use in energystorage, which presents significant demand upside for vanadium.

Vanadium redox flow batteries have long life cycles, scalability, quick response times and depth of discharge, which are expected to ensure a share of the stationary energystorage market for them. 

image: http://cd.creamermedia.com/template/mw2014/images/icon_article_end.png