Re: Thinking...
posted on
Sep 29, 2018 12:15PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Jeeze, I just recently got back in myself - but I can't see how you're pumping so hard with everything that's happened so far. I'd encourage readers to see why what posters say are wrong (including my own post). Some things are said so boldly and confidently when it's just speculation. The company does have fundamentals, there's no reason to speculate and pump.
All signs point to a major catalyst in the coming months. Early 2019 by the latest we should be taken out.
This is so hyperbolic. This has been said for 7 years, if not longer. There's no reason to believe this would be the latest we'd be taken out at all.
Teck will need to either announce a production decision or buy the asset.
You say this without glossing over the possibilities and assume that there's only one possibility. They could just make a production decision ... and not buy us out. As far as I can tell, they could make a production decision saying they'll produce the mine but there would be a delay before they start building (not likely, but not impossible).
Copper Fox is a majority owner of the Laird shares and have equal say with Teck. The JV controls over 86% of Laird.
It's been a while since I've looked at the nitty gritty, but if the JV controls 85.45% of the Liard shares (based on the CUU websitehttp://www.copperfoxmetals.com/s/SchaftCreek.asp), then how can CUU be the majority owner? The JV holds and controls it, not CUU. No?
Things to factor on the timing of a buyout announcement:
1) Renmark contract ends- end of October - I don't see why this means that a buyout is likely to be sooner rather than later.
2) JV meeting- end of October - I still don't see why just because there's a meeting means that there will be a buyout sooner rather than later. Again, could just be business as usual or a production decision without a buyout at the end of October.
3) Teck looking for development partner-before November (bundle packaging with SC included) - Not sure where this information is coming from exactly? Both looking for a partner and the timeline.
4) Desktop studies nearing completion - This is probably true, but I don't think just because we have updated numbers means we'll instantly be bought out. We all thought the same thing in 2012/2013.
5) Laird meeting- January 2019 - Again... why does this lead to a buyout sooner rather than later?
6) Majors interest in copper assets and increased metal prices - Which is good for the market environment to support a buyout, but doesn't really address timing.
7) Elmer and EE - EE likely has a long time-horizon, if anything his investment doesn't support a quickturnaround.
I think there are fundamentals in the company, but I really don't see a quick 10x in the company within a few months and it seems irresponsible to suggest it. There will likely be a purchase of SC at some point, but it seems disingenuous to say that it's always around the next corner.