Re: Desktop studies
posted on
Dec 02, 2018 01:50PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
"An already de-risked multi-decade deposit with a positive sandbagged feasibility with loads and loads of optimization potential, and one hardly scratching the surface of a rich and potentially multi-generational mining district in a stable jurisdiction should get NPV5%, at a minimum, not NPV8. HUGE difference in the valuation.The overly conservative sandbagged 2012 Feasibility Study provided a Real Options Value of $2.5 Billion Net Present Value. From my point of view that's just a pre-optimization, pre-mine-right-sizing starting point. Fix those, as any honest operator would, and then you adjust for current currency exchange and long term commodity assumptions. Convert 171MT waste not waste, expand pit, reserves and mine size, ring out better recoveries, automation, rail it out, etc etc etc and my desktop studies show no reasons why NPVs couldn't be doubled"
Golf! Strongly agree with this. He is absolutely right on this post.
Elmer has took us publicly and privately this is the case on value. The ROV case (Real Options Value) is the most relevant valuation to determine worth of the project. Those of us who are expecting a higher buyout will not base it on a 500 million 8% discount base case metric. Confirm with Elmer. Those shareholders who want that 800 million buyout will base our value on a 5% discount rate using the ROV case as Elmer has suggested. Remember, SC warrants a higher value metric as this property is a production ready-post feasibility, First Nations approved project. Also keep in mind with the below we have several options to improve economics including reducing OPEX and CAPEX to increase profitability.
From 2012 report
Summary of Economic Results
Base Case pre-tax Net Present Value ('NPV') for the Schaft Creek deposit using long-term metal prices and exchange rates and an 8% discount rate is CDN $513 million. Internal Rate of Return ('IRR') is 10.13% and a payback period of 6.5 years. In addition to the base case, three alternative cases were presented. Alternate Cases (1) and (2) are using three years trailing average and spot metal prices (as of October 15, 2012), respectively, and are presented for comparative purposes. Of particular significance is the third alternate case using the sophisticated economic science referred to as Real Option Valuation ('ROV'). NPV at an 8% discount rate for the alternative cases 1, 2 and 3 are CDN $967 million, CDN $1,024 million and CDN $1,382 million, respectively. Details about the economic analysis are on page 11 below.
Item | Unit | Base Case | 3-Y Avg* Case | Spot Price** Case | Real Options Case |
---|
NPV (at 5%) | CDN$ M | 1,694 | 2,348 | 2,419 | 2,665 |
NPV (at 8%) | CDN$ M | 513 | 967 | 1,024 | 1,382 |
After Tax Economic Results | ||
---|---|---|
Description | Base Case | ROV Case |
Net Cash Flow (CDN$ million) | 4,270 | 5,133 |
Discounted Cash Flow NPV (CDN$ million) at 5% | 956 | 1,260 |
Discounted Cash Flow NPV (CDN$ million) at 8% | 67 | 529 |
Payback (years from start of mill operations) | 6.8 | 5.7 |
IRR (%) | 8.3 | 12.7 |
Also interesting:
The proposed process plant would be a conventional double-line grinding-flotation concentrator. The plant site has sufficient mill pad area to install a third processing line to increase daily throughput to 180,000 tpd should expansion of the mine be required to optimize the economics of the project.
There is potential to extend the mine life with additional infill drilling to upgrade the approximately 171.16 million tonnes of current inferred resource located within the proposed open pit. Additional exploration of the Schaft Creek deposit to the east and the north of the Paramount zone and north of the Liard zone as well as the recently discovered Discovery zone could extend the mine life of the Schaft Creek project.