What numbers are you guys expecting?
1 point increase in the exchange rate increases the NPV by 75M
1 point increase in copper price increases the NPV by around 50M.
1 point increase in gold price increases the NPV by around 25M
The base case gives us a NPV of 513M with an exchange rate of 0.97, copper price of 3.25$US & gold price of 1445USD.
The long term exchange rate is set at 0.83, copper price at 3.00USD & gold price 1200 USD.
Therefore:
Exchange rate is up 15% compared to base case.
Copper price is down 8% compared to base case.
Gold price is down 17% points compared to base case.
513M + (15 x 75M) - (8 x 50M) - (17 x 20M) = increase of 385M
513M + 385M = 898M + 20% for starter pit not being wasted = approx. 1.1B
Without even considering other parameters (e.g. cost savings), I think the numbers should at least double.
MoneyK