Here's mine just for fun...
1 point increase in the exchange rate increases the NPV by 75M
1 point increase in copper price increases the NPV by around 50M.
1 point increase in gold price increases the NPV by around 25M
1 point increase in capital cost reduces the NPV by around 30M
1 point increase in operational cost reduces the NPV by around 40M
The base case gives us a NPV of 513M with an exchange rate of 0.97, copper price of 3.25$US & gold price of 1445USD.
Let`s assume the following values are used for the revised study:
- Exchange rate at 0.83, copper price is 3.08USD & gold price 1310USD.
Therefore:
Exchange rate up 14% compared to base case.
Copper price down 5% compared to base case.
Gold price down 9% points compared to base case.
513M + (14 x 75M) - (5 x 50M) - (9 x 20M) = 1.1B
- Adding 20% more to include the "waste": 200M
- Reducing operational cost by 5% adds 200M
- Reducing capital cost by 10% adds 300M
For a total of 1.8B (base case scenario @ 8%).
I think our numbers will be similar to QB2 for which 30% of the project sold for 1.2B.
Adding to this, let's not forget that most gold projects are sold based on NPV 5%. As we have plenty of gold, we should get a premium just for that.
MoneyK