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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Schaft Creek's strength

Removed the C1 cash cost portion.  Not sure if it's double dipping or not so prefer to remain conservative.

 

*** Warning *** this post is for those who like numbers.

2013 Feasibility Study (FS) annual net cash flow (NCF):

  • 657M CAD (years 1 to 7)
  • 415M CAD (years 8 to 21)

Impact due to metal price variation

Copper price difference between 2013 & 2019:

  • 2013: $3.25 US with an exchange rate of 0.97 = $3.35 CAD
  • 2019: $3.15 US with an exchange rate of 0.77 = $4.09 CAD
  • for a difference of $0.74 CAD (positive) per pound

Gold price difference between 2013 & 2019:

  • 2013: $1,445 US with an exchange rate of 0.97 = $1,490 CAD
  • 2019: $1,300 US with an exchange rate of 0.77 = $1,688 CAD
  • for a difference of $198 CAD (positive) per ounce

Therefore, each pound of copper increases the NCF by $0.74 CAD and each ounce of gold increases the NCF by $198 CAD due to price variation.

 2013 estimated production per year:

  • 261Mlbs of copper and 247koz of gold (years 1 to 7) – 363Mlbs CuEq
  • 204Mlbs of copper and 167koz of gold (years 8 to 21) – 273Mlbs CuEq

Calculation:

  • (261Mlbs x $0.74) + (247koz x $198) = annual increase of NCF around 242M (years 1 to 7)
  • (204Mlbs x $0.74) + (167koz x $198) =  annual increase of NCF around 184M (years 8 to 21)

 Adding these numbers to the baseline:

  • 657M + 242M = $899M CAD (years 1 to 7)
  • 415M + 184M = $599M  CAD (years 8 to 21)

When putting these parameters in a Net Present Value calculator, at 8%, the above numbers move the needle from approximately 500M to 1.8B.

Finally, the above estimate does not include other possible upgrades, such as:

  • A higher grade starter pit
  • Teck`s RACE 21 technology
  • Reduction in Capex
  • Optimization
  • Increased in tonnage (2-3%)
  • Increased recoveries
  • Waste converted to resources
  • Inferred resources
  • and only uses 50% of the resources (which is minimum)
  • Etc.

Obviously, this is all IMO,

MoneyK

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