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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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In Reference to MoneyK cvomments in recent posts

  • ..... In your opinion, what would be good vs. fantastic results for VD and SC and where should the SP be based on those results?  In order to have an exit strategy, you must have numbers in head?
  • VD numbers should improve significantly (x3-x4 the current NPV numbers with copper at $3.15 US is my guess and hoping for a pre-tax IRR around 50%).

You asked a good question in what my own numbers are.  Other than taking some money off the table, I was generaly planning on waiting until PEA are released.  I didn't have any expected NPV numbers in mind - other than better than what we have now.  So I made an attempt to that below - please correct me where I'm off.   

 

In 2015, the Van Dyke PEA was for 456.9 Million pounds (797 mp soluble) of copper at $3.00/lb – gross revenue of $1,370 million.  Which at the 8% discount rate results in (post tax) NPV of $149.5 Million and an IRR of 27.9%. 
This already was about $0.30/share for this asset alone.  Anybody have any guess what % of an NPV a buyer would be willing to pay though?

 

In 2020, the resource estimate was for Indicated of 717 million pounds (517 mp soluble) and Inferred of 1,007 million pounds (699 mp soluble).  
- I’m not 100% sure that I have the distinction between Soluble and copper cathode sold correct
- Does the PEA include both?  I’m assuming that it could because the 2015 was only on Inferred.

 

To me that gives 1,724 million pounds which at a higher copper price of let’s say $3.25/lb – gross revenue would be $5,603 million.   I have no idea on this but if for an example…. the All in sustaining cost increases to $1.60 (up from the $1.44/pound in the 2015 PEA) gives a cost of $2,758 million – Add in the initial capital cost of $225 million (up from $204.4 million in 2015 PEA) . 
This is about $2.603 million which is a heck of a lot more than the $453 million Pre-Tax Net Free Cash Flow in the 2015 PEA.  This is 5.7 X better.  I have no idea how to calculate the NPV though from this.   I'm not confident in my calculations so please correct me where I'm wrong.

So, in conclusion I would agree with your comment of expecting... x3-x4 the current NPV numbers.  This means a share price of $0.90 to $1.20 for this asset alone.   However, I have no idea what % of a NPV a buyer whoudl be willing to pay.  That is - unless the buyer only cared about the copper as a resource - why would a buyer pay $1.00 for an asset that they only expect to receive a $1.00 back on their investment?  

All I do know is that it is alot more than our current share price of 0.345.  And this is doesn't include the SC deposit. 

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