Here's the estimate I came up with using the sensitivity charts from the 2013 FS and metal prices from Teck/RE. The charts are pretax so I scaled them using the 2013 differences for the post tax. I don't know why the 2013 post tax NPV(8%) was so low. I gave them a 5% bump on the opex and capex just because all of the work Teck did for the last 7 years should have improved something. Whatever they get in the 2021 PEA will have to impress a buyer enough to bid. CUU also needs to have a discussion with Teck about what they can say about the development plan for SC, which is still a mystery. If they used higher metal prices the results obviously be better. I did some rounding and eyeballed the numbers from the charts but if anyone catches a major mistake let me know. Just did it to see if I could get close to their numbers
| |
Estimate Pretax |
|
|
|
|
| |
2013 CUU FS |
2020 Teck AIF |
delta(%) |
NPV impact($ MM) |
IRR impact(%) |
| Copper($/lb) |
3.25 |
3 |
-8 |
-400 |
-2 |
| gold($/oz) |
1445 |
1300 |
-10 |
-200 |
-1 |
| moly($/lb) |
14.64 |
10 |
-32 |
-250 |
-2 |
| exchange |
0.97 |
0.8 |
18 |
1387 |
7 |
| capex |
|
|
5 |
200 |
2 |
| opex |
|
|
5 |
250 |
2 |
| |
|
|
|
987 |
6 |
| |
|
|
2013 pre tax |
513 |
10 |
| |
|
|
new estimate pre tax |
1500 |
16 |
| |
|
|
2013 post tax |
67 |
8 |
| |
|
|
new estimate post tax |
200 |
13 |
