If I get this right:
Currently, at 92% availability, SC would operate at 133 000 tpd with 83.1% recovery for copper. That for me, is the conservative version of the story.
- 133 000 tpd x 365 days x 0.26% x 2200 (to convert in lbs) x 83.1% = 230Mlbs of copper per year.
Here's the other extrem:
Teck operating at 95% availability, achieving 0.32% copper grades and 88.4% recoveries (like in the BFS).
- 137 337 tpd x 365 days x 0.32% x 2200 (to convert in lbs) x 88.4% recovery = 312Mlbs of copper per year.
That's only for copper. You can calculate the same for gold, silver & moly.
At a certain point, they need to find the right balance, but selling now with the current PEA assumptions would be a mistake in my opinion. If they now have a chance to increase the production by let's say 10%, that's almost free money that could be added to the business case.
If at the same time they can reduced the C1 cost further by improving the strip ratio and also reduce the construction timeline it would make a huge difference all together.
Why didn't they drill earlier this year? Who knows. Somebody must have a timeline in head, but for me, although the wait has been painfull, the important thing is that SC has moved more in the last 2 years vs. the remaining of the decade.
MoneyK
