Welcome To the Copper Fox Metals Inc. HUB On AGORACOM

CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Re: EBITDA
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Jan 26, 2022 11:31AM
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Jan 26, 2022 11:44AM
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Jan 26, 2022 11:54AM
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Jan 26, 2022 12:01PM
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Jan 26, 2022 01:54PM
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Jan 27, 2022 08:54PM

As mentionned previously, per my calculation, 100% of SC could offer Teck similar EBITDA as 60% of QB2 in low or high price environment.

Estimated Annual EBITDA (US$B)
  SC PEA/QB2 Reserve Case SC PEA/QB2 Reserve Case
Copper (US) $3.25 $4.50
Gold (US) $1,500.00 $1,825.00
Moly (US) $10.00 $20.00
Silver (US) $20.00 $25.00
First 5 full years    
QB2 (60%) 0.72 1.14
SC  (100%) 0.70 1.16
First 10 full years    
QB2 (60%) 0.66  
SC (100%) 0.58  
LOM    
QB2 (60%) 0.54  
SC (100%) 0.51  

Based on QB2`s reserve case with copper at $3.25 US, the expected annual EBITDA (First 5 years) is $1.2B US.

Sumitomo, at sanction date, agreed to pay around $1.5B US for 30% of the project or $360M US of annual EBITDA (First 5 years).

SC's annual EBITDA (First 5 years) is currently $695M US or $174M US for our 25%.

If Sumitomo was willing to pay $1.5B US for $360M US of EBITDA, they should be willing to pay $725M US for $174M US at sanction date?

If the SCJV is able to increase the EBITDA by $100M US per year, that could increase the price tag to $828M US, at sanction date.

If the SCJV is able to increase the EBITDA by $200M US per year, that could increase the price tag to $932M US, at sanction date.

If SC is two years away from sanction date, in my opinion, these numbers could be discounted anywhere between 8% and 15% per year.

After, we can add $60M US for the LT copper price now being at $3.50 US, $40M CA for the milestone payments, a premium for being in Canada,  and call it the day.

Who cares about the NPV (8%), EBITDA is what will drive Teck's share price!

IMO.

MoneyK

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