If the Fed loses the inflation fight a significant economic recession is guaranteed.  We are still over a year minimum before a start of a recession, imo.  When the yield curve inverts there is a time lag of 18 months on average before the begining of a recession.  And its track record on reliability isn't 100%.

Here's how I see things unfolding.
  
Inflation is ramping up to near historic levels and we live an an increasing uncertain world.  There are a couple of sources that can feed inflation.  A common source of inflation comes from commodity price inflation (demand outstriping supply, due to scarcity for example) whose increased prices get passed on and move down the supply chain and typically companies pass on the increase as inflated retail prices.  Another core source of inflation is 'human insecurity' in the face of an uncertain economic future, the potential for yet higher prices, the potential for a loss of confidence in the future value of your dollars.  You want a greater number of those questionable dollars for the same product or service.   We currently have both sources of inflation on the increase, imo.   

The Fed is waaaaaay, waaaaaaaaay behind the curve (and they know it) and it will have to aggressively increase interest rates by 50 basis points minimum at a time.  I think the upcoming 50 basis increase is already priced into the market.  The shock and awe to the market comes when the Fed keeps up their 50 basis (or more) increases to try and race ahead of raging inflation to the point that it is evident the exercise has caused a recession. 

Inflation will continue to rise because of supply chain constraints that won't likely be solved in this war time environment and this war will continue tighten the screws generally on global insecurity. 

Although there are many people currently employed, earning and spending, that can change in a heart beat in a bad recession.  And with high inflation everywhere and higher interest rates emerging for renewing mortgage terms and you have a recipe for massive demand destruction.    However, eventually the solution to high prices is... high prices.  BTW, a recession is a minimum two quarters of contraction and it is not known that a recession even began until 6-months+ after the official begining of a recession.   Anyway, demand dries up, weak companies die, and the survivors gain market share and emerge leaner and more profitable and then are able to rehire.  And the cycle repeats.  

I believe we are on our way to a shock-and-awe watershed moment where the market "wakes-up" to the true precariousness of all these risks, or to an official recession announcement, and we have a sharp correction or perhaps even a prolonged bear market until the inflation mess sorts itself out and confidence returns.  Again, as rife with risks as my outlook is, given market history, I am confident that the markets hold up and advance quite well until that watershed moment some 16-24 months from now.  

If the war ends, sanctions get removed, supply chains issues get resolved and inflation sudden subsides, then I'll move back to my thesis that we are in the midst of another roaring 20's.