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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: 2021/2022 SC Programs

Seems that the goal is to optimize construction and production for the first (5) years.  I think it makes perfect sense.  The first years are crucial for project economics.  From my calculation, this is really where they get the best bang for the buck.

I modeled the PEA cashflows and came to the 13% after-tax IRR.  When increasing the cashflows by 20% for the first (5) years only, my IRR changed from 13% to 15.2%.  That's a 2.2% increase!  Increasing all the other cashflows by 20% only added another 0.7%, for a total of 15.9%.  Therefore, the biggest impact is really in the initial years.

Also, the other parameter that has the biggest impact is capex.  Reducing the capex cost by 15% increases the IRR from 12.9% to 15.7%.  That's a 2.8% increase!

Now combine both together and you get a 18.2% after-tax IRR @ $3.25 US copper!  One can dream!

Honnestly, let's just hope that they are able to keep capex at $2650 US.  That's my biggest concern with inflation hitting everywhere.  This being said, I think that LT copper prices (e.g. $3.50 US or $3.75 US) would compensate and maybe to our advantage.

Considering that most companies contemplate a 15% growth year over year, getting SC to 15% would be great and anyone purchasing SC for 25% of the capex cost could get that 15% growth in a super safe jurisdiction.

25% of capex = $662.5M US.  I'm willing to take a 15% to 30% haircut on that amount, just because there's still work to do before a production decision, but not more.  If Teck can bring Galore to production before 2028, there's no reason they could not do the same with SC.  At that point it becomes there decision and we should not pay for that.

On top of that, adding another $100M US for the remaining resources + exploration potential would be fair in my opinion.  Also, let's not forget the milestone payments.

Finally, anything above 15% IRR should be translated into a premium.  Why leave anything on the table right?

MoneyK

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