Powell still believes a soft landing can be achieved so we may not even get a recession.  It will all depend on the duration of inflation (which is all supply-chain constraint driven) which will dictate the duration of high rates and that will drive the extent of layoffs and reduced consumption.  Supply chains are improving already though as companies adapt. 

Powell thinks his aggressive stance should get us back to a 2% inflation and steady-growth world sooner than in past cycles.  So I expect short term pain over the next 6-8 months until inflation recedes and rates are expected to drift back down, then we are off to the races.  If we do get a recession most economists believe the recession is unlikely to be deep.  Don't underestimate the economic resurgence effects of China coming out of lockdowns and Europe adapting without reliance on Russia's oil.   

My opinion:  We get a garden variety recession ending next fall.  Powell pivots right around then and the markets and commodities go wild if they haven't already moved in anticipation of these events.  

Like I had suggested before...a smart Major would make a move on a project (if not at least sniff aound)  before the next upcycle so, hey, who knows, maybe the outside IR guy was hired because insiders are already too busy and perhaps in a blackout period.

All pure speculation of course...