Teck reported in 2021 the same LOM production for SC (161 ktpa), but with a C1 cost $0.30 US to $0.40 US lower than our PEA. If we pass these savings to our PEA, that's possibly $100M US more in revenues per year! Assuming $65M US left after-tax, this only could improve the after-tax NPV (8%) by at least 400M US.
On top of that:
- Improvements coming from the 2021 Program could also add another $400M US?
- LT copper price of minimum $3.75 US could be justified at this point. This adds another $500M US?
- Moly has been stable around $20 US per pound for 1.5 year. Every dollar increases the after-tax NPV (8%) by $50M US. That's another $250M US if we use $15 US instead of $10 US?
- Reducing the construction timeline by 1 year could add another 100M US?
The above would now give SC a $2.5B US after-tax NPV (8%). This becomes fair value territory to negociate.
After you add something for the remaining 40% resource, the exploration potential, the carried interest and the JV milestone payments.
IMO.
MoneyK
