"I fear that if we see $5.00 copper the mood will change to  "why not $6.00"  which is fine if you are young and healthy. Which I was 11 years ago when I first invested in CF."

I'm no spring chicken either.  This is my thirteenth year waiting for an imminent monetization event. 

I too wonder how many commodity super-cycles have to be missed before Ernesto learns that waiting for the peak of commodity prices before starting a sales process is a doomed strategy because it's timing won't work for acquiring majors.   Majors have learned their lesson and no longer buy projects at the top of the market (well, not unless Don Lindsay is in charge, lol).

If Ernesto sees commodity prices peaking in two years he needs to be active promoting and selling this project (or company) right now, that is if a final sale is to eventually happen in a year or two.

Even if he delivered the SC ROFO today, it could easily be 2024 before a final outcome occurs; as in either a sale or a lapsed ROFO.  A lapsed ROFO would then add potentially more than a year before the next ROFO attempt lapsed because there's a 6-month cooling period before the next ROFO can be delivered.

If delivered, there's the 3 months (IIRC) 'offer consideration' period and if Teck says "No thanks, go fish" then there's a 6-month window to find and land a major willing to pay the ROFO price plus one dollar.  

Does Ernesto understand the issues caused by waiting for higher/peaks prices?   Does he understand the timing issues given the delays in finding and landing a suitor within a set period of time?

That said and on the otherhand, in my 40 years of following markets, I have never read anyone predicting multi-dollar moves for copper.  Yet depite this, copper's history for doubling and even tripling in price over a one or two year period is easy to see on a longer term chart. Copper once moved from $1.50 to $4.50 during a two-year period.  Imagine if a triple in copper prices was in store over the next couple of years?  I don't think anyone would say "That can't happen again", especially in the current electrifiy-everythinig world and the expected future copper supply shortages.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=m1

So I wouldn't blame Ernesto for thinking that there is more juice to come.

Maybe the M&A experienced CFO hired a while ago is connected to early-stage promotions.  Maybe insiders insulating themselves from performing investor relations by hiring Creative Cap for one year is in response to an expectation to be in a black-out period.  CF did commission the SC PEA for the purpose of a thrid party valuation.  So if these curious events are connected to a planned liquidiation event then maybe just maybe Ernesto won't wait much longer in order try to time the top of the market.  Majors see the trajectory of metal prices and the scarcity of new deposits so I believe that right about now they would want to act fast before everything gets way pricier.

Sorry for the lengthy post --- just live-streaming my thoughts out loud.  Appreciate other's thoughts on this 'timing the cycle' issue.