9 months following this transaction, Teck came out with much better numbers for QB2.
See slide 27. https://www.teck.com/media/QB2-Partnership-and-Sanctioning-Conference-Call.pdf
Worst case, let's assume that the minority group was aware of these numbers at the time of the transaction.
For this exercice, I'll be using Teck's reserve case.
- NPV (8%) with copper at $3.00 US - $2.0B US
- NPV (8%) with copper at $3.15 US - $2.5B US (estimated)
- NPV (8%) with copper at $3.25 US - $2.9B US
Assuming the below payments in time for the QB2 minority group:
- $52.5M US for closing in 2018
- $60M US for EA approval in 2018
- $50M US 30 days before first production in 2023
Optional:
- $33.3M US 1 year after first production in 2024
- $33.3M US 2 years after first production in 2025
- $33.3M US 3 years after first production in 2026
Discounting all these values 8% per year to bring them back in 2018 dollars:
- $52.5M US for closing
- $60M US for EA approval
- $34M US 30 days before first production
- Total of $146.5M US (2018 dollars)
That's $146.5M US total for the 13.5% interest (valued at $270 US) or 54% of the NAV when using copper at $3.00 US.
Optional:
- $21M US 1 year after first production
- $19.5M US 2 years after first production
- $18M US 3 years after first production
- Total of $58.5M US (2018 dollars)
That's $205M US total for the 13.5% interest (valued at $337.5M US) or 61% of the NAV when using copper at $3.15 US.
Based on the above, 54% to 61% of the NAV was the selling price, for a project that was less than 1 year away from a production decision, without factoring in the carried-interest to production and location. Both in my opinion have "district" scale", as QB2 is only using 25% of it's known reserve to operate the initial 25 years.
IMO.
MoneyK