Tell Tale Signs
posted on
Aug 12, 2012 12:35PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Something that has gone unnoticed is the fact that the company has not shown interest in the Chinese. They take for granted the position through Teck but do not seem to be interested in attracting a greater position from the Chinese. We seem to be American centric. Not even a thrust for Canadian roots! I've noticed this over the past couple of year. We've even discussed the Polish who were there on the hill in 2008. We've discussed Anto and Col and Southern but when the subject of China comes up it's always the same. "They give Teck an open bank account". We don't use the NIA 500 and we let the Chinese pdf lag. We go to the USA frequently and not just to look at land. We don't have huge American sp support yet we devote a fair portion of the company's efforts catering to them.
True, we are buying in an area where other Canadian firm exist and are courting BHP as the next customer but we don't seem to have gained much traction with the USA market. Even the land buy did not gain us favour. I credit the firm with diversification to try get market attention and I like the strategy Elmer wants to deploy to keep us going. I suspect we will be in for a repeat of SC with the same boring style as we cater to the giants. Nothing wrong with that. I like the idea that they will call on us. Large co's have probably suggested we look here and there and have prepared deals should we like a prospective property. We only need to look at a mines life to suggest what properties will pay big if we prove them up. That simplifies deal making.
This gives us something to do while we wait. We can research mine lives and prospects and see where the next 10 years lay. I don't see a sudden return of the retail in the Jr markets for a long time. That bridge has been burnt. It's actually getting worse and spreading to the low to mid tier companies. Look at BGM and New Gold for example. The game is going to have to change for the gold companies. Well worth the read: http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/mining/publications/gold-price-survey-2012-en-v2.pdf A digression is required here.
Gold companies recognise the damage ETFs are doing. They need to do something about that. ETFs are crippling them yet they are what drives the value of the fund. As the fund causes more scarcity in supply it goes up. At a certain point ETFs fall appart due to their own success in that they wipe out the ability to meet their own demand. Then the whole house of cards collapses. Currently, gold producers would like to give dividends and I like the idea that they would pay these in gold! But, they need to spend money on exploration. (The two most important items that stand out are project development and exploration).
Since they will not be getting money from the markets the new players enter the scene with favour. That's companies like Teck who have gold as a side product! Where else will supply be shored up from? BAR and a few others will survive and give the markets a few million ounces here and there but it's not enough. The majors with rising costs and falling stocks will find it even harder to carry the interest burden of finance and then factor in strikes and rising labour and capital equipment... You see where this is going. Gold hits $2500 and ounce but the margin remains largely the same. Taxes and Nationalizations tap into the total stream and supply just doesn't change. In fact, all that happens it the game gets tougher. Throw in shrinking quality and size and the problems amplify. Now this leads to a bigger margin for sure but the retail and even larger investors avoid them because the finance cost are too high and this is exactly due to the lack of investors so it becomes self reinforcing. A hideous loop indeed. And so it seems thqat my predictions about ETFs and their effects turns out to be largely true. I also predicted that bubble would burst. I do believe it's a question of when.
in the meantime gold values go up and up. Where we are a 25 year case at say 300,000 ounces a year the new higher long term price should be considers. I would take an average of the near term $1400 and the longer term $1300.