Re: Investment after CUU
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 01, 2013 10:35AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
These are plays I'm STILL looking into. A lot of it depends on timing of how CUU plays out and on further research. These are just some ideas to go off of. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILLIGENCE.
Allana Potash (TSX: AAA) – Potash project located in Ethiopia. High risk geo-political area, but if you can get over that it seems good. The area itself (again if you keep in mind the political risks) is in a good position to ship to China and India, both fast growing areas of the world that need to keep up with their agricultural production. Africa itself is becoming more self-sustaining and will benefit from better agriculture. Their main project has an NPV of 1.8B at a 12% discount rate and an IRR of 35% (after-tax) based on their PEA (Nov 2011 – shouldn’t expect much change as its recent). With just under 300M shares outstanding fully diluted, they have a market cap of 150M. They also have around 50M in cash, so that’s about 16 cents a share. So very undervalued, they’re trading at around 8% of their NPV even at a 12% discount rate and not including cash. They have a BFS release planned for Q1, so ideally I’d want to have a position before that…really depends on how CUU plays out and when if that happens. With the BFS though, they have 650M in soft commitments and expect CAPEX to be around 800M. After the BFS, they should be around 30-35M so, 120M can be obtained through equity financing and hopefully after their BFS they’d be at above $1 assuming similar results to their PEA. Dilluted to less than 420M as if all warrants were exercised, they should get some cash from there too. They also acquired property right next to them that isn’t incorporated into the BFS which adds value, as I think they got it for a good price. Biggest concerns is the geopolitical and ability to get financing in this economic climate – but they do have past investors including the IMF, which I think is a pretty solid achievement. Management is pretty good and has had success in the past. They’re a potential takeover candidate because of their depressed share price, but large investors put money into this over $1, and even 80 cents at the cheapest so a double at the worst and if they get to production (would take less than 2 years; 12-18months) they’d be worth over $4+ even after dilution. If they get taken over – 3 to 5 times your money. If they get to production and the world economy is better in 2-3 years, 10 bagger potential. If they can’t obtain financing or the BFS isn’t favorable for some reason (which they can then try to incorporate newly acquired lands into) it’d go rather low – but after incorporating the new lands if they had a bad BFS now – depending on how low it went would be worth a decent penny as well.
Balmoral Resources (TSV: BAR) – I was looking at this and thought I’d be in this play at 50 cents but figured CUU would be long done and I could get in. They were trading at 94 cents because of a warrant hangover for a while, but they’re up to $1.08 now. Easy takeover target. Detour Gold announced publically they’d be looking for deposits within 50KM of their mine to add to their reserves which BAR falls under. Management has been in the same region before and sold their last company for $422M so relevant and experienced management doing the same thing. They’re cashed up, and tax benefits are awesome for exploration in Quebec (get up to 35% of exploration costs back as a refund…So $1M gets you $350K back, and that 350K will get you 122K back and so on – your money goes a long way exploring there). They’ll be taken out within 1-2 years.
Niogold Mining Corp (TSV: NOX) – Gold mining play in Quebec. I like Quebec for explorers. They have a $40M market cap and a possible JV with Aurizon for 50% on their project that if they choose to back in will have to pay them over $40M in cash (closer to 50-60M) already higher than their market cap, and then at least 1.5M ounces of gold, with the potential for 2 or 3 million. Don’t have time write more but they’re generally undervalued and trading below possible cash costs – otherwise they’re given almost no value for their gold.
DYODD