Welcome to the Crystallex HUB on AGORACOM

Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

Free
Message: Good KRY VH article from an investor

Good KRY VH article from an investor

posted on Oct 28, 2007 12:42PM
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=76574

Published: Sunday, October 28, 2007
Bylined to: Keith Thompson


Las Cristinas is a toxic nightmare, and the sooner the cleanup starts
the better!

Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2007 20:37:30
From: Keith Thompson thompske15@...
To: Editor@...
Subject: Response to Concerned KRY Investor

I'd like to add my two cents to the ongoing saga. I try to be
objective and have listed some of my interpretations of the facts in
response to Concerned Investor.

I have been a Crystallex long shareholder for almost four years and
have a thick file of documentation on the project including news
(mis)-stories, press releases and financial reports.

I have bought and sold dozens of times and thousands of shares, but
have never gone short.

The following points, I believe, show the strength of the company's
position and why I believe the decision of the Government of
Venezuela will be a positive one for Crystallex and its shareholders.

1. Why do you invest your money in this stock if you are so
concerned?

Or perhaps, I was thinking, you are concerned because you are short.
As an investor, you have not made it clear if you are long or short,
just concerned. I would suggest that if you are so concerned to write
multiple commentaries to VHeadline.com, you should sell your shares
or cover your shorts to the level that you won't be so concerned.

It should be noted that earlier this year on the AMEX Crystallex had
over 12 million shares sold short. As of the latest reporting period
there are now only 5,496,573 shares shorted.

Certainly a majority have covered shorts as this project moves closer
to kickoff.

2. Previously you mentioned the investors were hoping for a buyout
and perhaps there would be an issue with their operating title
transferring to a new owner. It was confirmed earlier this summer
that the operating contract held by Crystallex is transferable to any
potential successor.

3. I have done calculations on potential buyout values based on
relevant models, one based on the BMO Nesbitt Burns model which
incorporates the remaining required capex, number of shares
outstanding, cost per share and the ounces in reserves of a project.

When, based on current figures, with 17.5 million recoverable ounces
in M & I categories, a buyout of $20.00 per share would yield an
average acquisition cost of $555 per ounce. Now, I'm not stating the
company will be bought for $20, because it doesn't "own" the gold,
but the upside potential in share price if a suitor were to make a
bid is significant. Considering that Bema Gold was acquired this
spring for $3.1 billion and half of their ounces may not even be
economical to mine until gold is higher in price due to the costs
associated with the Cerro Casale deposit.

4. Crystallex has 262 million shares outstanding now, and assuming
some financing is done in dilution lets assume 300 million shares
will be outstanding to move the project forward. A project of this
size could command a $3 billion buyout as the deposit is large,
easily processed geologically and even using updated cost estimates
of $300 per ounce, the project has the potential to generate $400
plus per ounce operating profit before taxes and fees. The most
recent feasibility study is quite outdated so we don't really know
costs, but assume they'll be considerably higher than in the study.
Of course, the price of gold is up about 75% so I expect that to more
than offset the rising costs.

5. Crystallex has a legally signed contract to operate the deposit
for the CVG. It is the CVG that will be receiving the Environmental
Permit. Period! Crystallex will have use of the Environmental Permit
as the sole operator. Does anyone really suppose the Venezuela
government will not issue the Environmental Permit to another
governmental entity?

6. Lets assume the worst case scenario for long investors, the permit
is NOT granted. How does this make sense?

Don't forget it's not a question of ownership of the ore ...
Crystallex plainly states the ore belongs to the people of Venezuela.
IF Crystallex was proven not deserving to operate a legally signed
contract, what next? They pull their data and employees and go home.

How soon would another operator come up to speed?

Why would another public company want to run the risk?

What BOD would approve such an attempt?

Sure perhaps some employees would still work at kilometer 88, but
where would the investment dollar come from?

The area is a toxic nightmare and the sooner the cleanup starts the
better. Crystallex has already agreed to educate miners and provide
smaller scale mining on parts of the Las Cristinas deposits to
satisfy governmental requests.

7. Crystallex received the permit to occupy the land in the summer of
2004. Their environmental impact statement was approved in the spring
of 2005, this was the final document needed before the permit to
Impact Natural Resources was applied for. Crystallex received MIBAM
approval for all technical aspects of the project in March 2006.
Crystallex has received the environmental permit to process aggregate
rock for the development of Las Cristinas. This fact is hardly
mentioned in the press. Crystallex has a contract signed by the
Chavez government to operate the deposit. They have the contract, the
exact type of legal document the government has been pushing for two
years, and it's not a concession. On June 14, 2007 the Environment
Ministry said all aspects of the application were approved, and the
permit would be granted after the payment of certain taxes and
posting of a bond which has been completed.

In summary, I do not work for the company, but have met with the
executives on many occasions. I have not been to Venezuela so I have
no insider knowledge.

The point of this commentary is to dispel some of the myths of this
long and arduous project.

For any investor here, if you agree with this assessment stay long
and maybe wait a while longer. If you don't agree, sell or sell
short, but let's stop the idiotic innuendo and relentless and mostly
fact less bashing.

I suspect we'll all get an answer soon ... and one more thought ...
I've yet to read any intelligent commentary on why it would be in the
best interest of the government of Venezuela not to grant the
Environmental Permit.

Not granting the permit means that illegal, dangerous and subsistence
mining would continue for some time to come!

Regards to all,
Keith Thompson
thompske15@...
Newtown, CT.
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply