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Message: Re: Maybe BritNick is on to Something

Re: Maybe BritNick is on to Something

posted on Feb 26, 2008 03:25PM

Chris - Today was a good day with the PPS staying in the upper half of the range with lots of buying support and a good close on the high (close enough). I would not yet say that this is due to Britnick's prognostication, and in fact I hope it is not. If what he says comes to pass (and you know my feelings on that), I would rather it come as a surprise. Why? because people often jump into KRY on rumours and when they don't happen they jump out, taking other longs with them and carrying us to further lows.

What I think is that this was a technical bottom such as I was describing a couple of days back. As Coco pointed out, we had some capitulation when it hit a new 52w low and a recovery. That was one thing I was looking for to say it was a technical bottom. I had my largest buy waiting in at $1.60 and got it with the capitulation.

As more and more of the weaker longs have bailed, the new ones coming in will look at KRY from a different perspective. They will be optimistic and not have the pain those who have been holding have felt. That optimism will carry the PPS higher at least short term.

After the capitualtion, there is usually a range bound period where range and volume contract into a coiled spring. I saw that yesterday and put in another order at $1.65 but did not get filled. At some point the price will break up or down. Volume today was good and better than I would expect on a head fake, but also not the kind of volume I would want to see for a confirmation.

The good side is a technical reversal will move up regardless of Britnick or other rumours since it is not based on those. The bad side is that they will once again drift down as the short term traders who trade technical bottoms cash in profits (15% to 20% gains). That is how I trade. I also see this as a technical bottom reversal because non-news or rumour based breakouts rarely go past 7% on the breakout day and that is where we stopped.

This was a good day for longs and I will look for confirmation over the next few days. But watch out if you see the action return to trading on the sell side in the bottom half of the range most of the day as the technical reversal will have stalled.

Since I have been buying back my last sales from the $1.90's and upper $1.80's starting at $1.75 down to the $1.60 and one more on the upswing, I am back up to past my standing core position and will be watching for a few days. If Britnick's rumour pans out, heck, I'll be happy to thank him, but it has not influenced my trading nor my core.

Good luck Chris. I am snow bound in Chicago this week so I missed the power outage.

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