Teutracker...good logical analysis of the situation. The two worst case logical scenarios:
1. It's all about the environment....end of discussion (I don't buy that for one minute)
2. Possibly Hugo may have worked a sweetheart deal with the Russians....you know....friends with benefits (helicopters, missiles, hatred of the west). This one is a possibility.
Hopefully this is just a case of Keystone bureaucratic cops and the end result will be a revised deal that we can live with (God forbid a deal is a deal) that will provide jobs and leave Hugo doing what he does best....waving and smiling in front of adoring red-shirted fans. The way this whole thing is going down is simply atrocious. Even if things work out in a half-assed good way I fear that irreparable damage has been done to the long term value of this stock. Why do I say that? For one thing....look at our share price. "Permit Pop" takes on a whole new meaning starting from these levels. Also....assuming that the worst thing that happens is a revision to the M.O.A. (can you say junior partner status?)....how do you think this will affect any future buyout price let alone profitability for KRY? The moral of the story would be..."a deal is not a deal in Vz". I, for one, would exit this stock as soon as I could get my head above water. Like you...I've decided to ride this to zero if that is what it takes. The ONLY way I regain my confidence in Vz...and hence KRY...is if the original M.O.A. is left "as is". Hugo has plenty of time to "F" us with a significant revision to the original legal, binding contract once the mine is built. Bottom line...if I had it to do all over again I would NOT invest in Venezuela.