Welcome to the Crystallex HUB on AGORACOM

Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

Free
Message: Green or Red Today?

Re: Green or Red Today?---Ian

posted on May 14, 2008 05:53PM

Razzy, no one hates it more than I do. But I don't I don't believe in cheerleading when it is not appropriate. If I see a downward potential I think it is important both for those holding as a statement that it is nothing more than technical movement and for those trading as an opportunity to take profits and look for better entries.

I must admit that I am much more confident when I have some history to judge emotional reaction levels in a PPS. At these levels there is no history so I am winging it a lot.

For tomorrow:

KRY returned to its pattern of up in the AM and then a steady decline hugging the low of the day and closing on or near the low. This has been 80% of the days action for the last year.

Closing on the low of the day is never good in any stock and generally the next morning continues the same sentiment. The action from open until around 9:50 to 10:00 A.M. is almost always emotionally charged and why I rarely trade during these minutes.

I expected us to break $1 today and that we had a lot of support is good. But I suspect we have gone back to trading behavior and many who jumped on board last Friday and Monday will want to take profits if they have not done so. I think most of the shorts who were short prior to 4/30 have covered, but I also expect there are some short fanatics who took up short positions again yesterday and they will wait to cover to see if we get back into the .80's. If we break $1 and move down to .95 I expect a rush of weak (new) longs to exit. That wil be my buy signal.

I see two possible scenarios for tomorrow:

First, I think the PPS will open up near today's close and breach $1.00 to bring us into the low .90's or upper .80's. This will be supported by the longs who jumped on and expected us to soar and will now be impatient. Barring news I think this is the most likely.

Second, though less likely, is that traders will gamble in the morning on the Bloomberg rumour that Chavez will decide on Thursday on the permit. This could rush us up in the A.M. but by noon if there is no news, we wil drop. Watch the Pre-market for clues.

Historically speaking KRY jumps on rumour and even news and then drops steadily back below where it jumped when there is no confirmation or further news.

To be honest I sold a bunch when we hit $1.30 and have been slowly repurchasing the shares with my bottom anticipated at .75. At this point I think those big players who have been selling will figure it is worth waiting and there will be others who see another opportunity to gain.

This is all JMHO, and in the end it really does not matter what the short term price movement does because we are all in this in a do or die gamble that has only one important catalyst ---- the permit.

Good Luck




Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply