Dear Jim,

One of the hardest lessons in trading I have had to keep re-learning is that emotions are the enemy.

Now that I've seen my spectacular gains from August 2007 to March 2008 evaporate since the Ides of March/Bear Stearns gold takedown, I am reminded of that challenge once again. It's tough, really tough. No, I am not on margin, but the past two months have been as demoralizing as I can remember.

The US dollar is garbage, the state of the US fiscally is parlous and other commodities, particularly oil, are on fire.

What gives with gold?!!! We are in a category 5 spin-storm and the tape painters not only have the upper hand, but they seem to have unlimited amounts of capital.

On the bright side, I tell myself if my trading actions should fade my emotions (as I believe they should), then good news for gold must be on its way because these are as dark days as I can remember. I'm realizing that sitting tight now requires a special kind of strength, as I'm sure you are aware.

After all, gold is traded with balls, not rulers, right? Whoever might have thought at one time that bagging this elephant was going to be easy is being schooled with extreme prejudice lately. Well, call me edumacated.

Best,
CIGA Timmins
Hong Kong

Dear CIGA Timmins,

Listen to Volcker today. You cannot have a more pro gold statement than he made!

1. You are right on what it takes to trade gold.
2. Gold has been acting just like this since $248, yet it has traded to $1033.
3. Gold acted just this way in the 1968 to 1980 bull market, yet went from under $40 to $887.50.
4. Have you ever considered who is on the buy side of all the short of gold derivatives still embedded in every production loan of the past ten years?
5. It is just those you blame for the depreciation of gold who have the most gold long.
6. COT is a fine in indicator because it is accepted as such.
7. A metals dealer is always buying gold and silver from production.
8. They immediately sell the future short.
9. Their best profit exists when they take the opportunity to pound the market to buy back the short at a large profit.
10. Therefore they never have a risk.
11. They do not file as hedgers but then who tells any truth now, LIBOR? The inflation figures? Priests?
12. This results in wild markets because of black mindless boxes being triggered by the metals dealers.
13. Gold is the smallest market in the world being played by the largest money in the world.
14. In the final analysis, gold is currency.
15. The consequence of bailing out all and any by the Fed will be the US dollar at .5200.
16. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th 2011.
17. This time gold may defeat all top callers by not crashing after reaching $1650.
18. The means by which the dollar will find a bottom and gold will stay up is the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, modernized then revitalized.
19. This is not gold convertibility nor the old style Fed GCR, which was tied to interest rates in an automatic way.
20. M3 will be again be published, considered at 100 on a index.
21. The Federal Reserve GCR will be tied to the liquidity index M3.
22. Gold will have to rise in price according to the up or down move of the index.
23. The US treasury will never have to do anything.
24. Devices will start trading on exchanges that are wagers on the price of gold according to the index movement, relieving the US Treasury Department of the need to buy or sell gold to change prices.
25. In desperation then in the dollar market this device will be accepted as a dollar tie to gold and will act as above.
26. This will signal the dollar low.
27. It would take a level of .52 to be so awful that the Fed GCR is seen as salvation.
28. Assuming the price of gold is at $1650, I estimate that gold would trade above and below that by $100.
29. Be calm!
30. Trading gold is a game for pros.
31. The pros pick the pocket of the public trying to trade gold.
32. I teach you simple and unique technical analysis as a mix for you to determine intermediate and long term trends.
33. So many go right at the low cap gold shares, making participants tired when 50% of the community members try to pick the pockets of the other 50% of the community.
34. These newbies of TA were the force that first started to debilitate the juniors.
35. Then came those with a plan to own it all.
36. The plan is brilliant.
37. The plan involves a consolidator, gold derivatives and juniors selling for less than they are worth dead.
38. Now you have the total picture, so relax.
39. Gold is going to at least $1650 by January 14th, 2011.
40. In the same period the US dollar will trade at .52 on the USDX.

Listen to Volcker’s comments today. You cannot have a more pro gold statement than what he made!

Regards,
Jim