Re: Possible changes in the MINAMB - why stock price down?
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 17, 2008 09:38AM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
I really don't know how substantial a move, but here is how I view this:
We were bottoming at $1.60 when all hope was being lost that we would get the permit, a year after paying the taxes and bonds. April 30 has the VZ denying the permit which gradually came to be seen as due to Ortega. The price was volatile but basically leveled out around .75 mostly due to the market accepting this as a value with the idea that KRY would not get the permit but had some legal recourse to recover something from VZ-CD trade agreements. Ortega was very vocal during this time.
There was heavy volume on a Friday and then we get the news release the next week that VZ was willing to reconsider the permit....Ortega becomes silent. The price jumps up to around $1.30 then drops down to around $1.15. We stay there for a while and then for some reason drops back into the .80's despite a good deal of additional positive and supporting news, including support for KRY by the AN. Price and volume were volatile.
Now the volume has been contracting as has the range. We find that institutions have been largely buying or addding compared to those selling, plus some new large positions (1 million + shares). IMHO, we should have bottomed at $1.30 or above considering we were really back to a position (news-wise) better than before the April 30 shock (keeping general market pessimism in mind).
The stock continued to fall however on good news, which shows a bearish attitude. These runs usually end with a high volume capitulation. IMHO some traders who gambled at $.60 before the last PR exited. I suspect many retail longs saw this as another "pump and dump" and took the chance to exit. But something else drove out a lot of retail on high volume while institutions bought. think the volume drop below $.90 was capitulation by retail.
When volume and range contract, as I said it usually marks the end of one phase, which all that I see leads me to believe that this phase was a quiet accumulation by big money and institutions as well as some short covering. They aren't going to play this to just $1.30 or even $2 I suspect.
Today there is still really only the KRY PR and the Rusuro story on the major newswires. If money has been changing hands from the weak to the strong then there will be good support.
Now, if the news we are hearing about Ortega hits the newswires, retail will likely want to get back in, but now the strong hands are less likely to sell so the price is driven up. Anything below $1.60 would not make sense here. If a permit is announced during this time, not only will retail want back in, but other institutions and mutual funds that don't touch stocks under $2 or avoid speculative stocks.... Again the longs now are stronger hands with higher expectations.
My point is that if we are finishing the major "quiet accumulation" phase, any real news will spark buying interest but there will not be nearly as many people willing to sell as there would on a "pump and dump". I expect this but don't know when. I have been accumulating as well and have also moved into a holding pattern. Unless there is some major negative news before then I think we are poised for a substantial move up soon.