Getting Ready for "The Turn" in the Dollar
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

"...Over the years, I have written a number of controversial articles, some which were correct, and some which were off base. Like a player that bats .300 in baseball, in the financial markets, if you can correctly see what’s coming next more then half the time, you are doing reasonably well. I start today’s article on this note because I know that right here, right now, this article and this call are bound to be among the most highly controversial and represent one of the more aggressive calls I have made in some time. Yet, looking at the state of the currency markets, it appears as though a truly major turn is dead ahead. Now, I am writing this article from the point of view of a market technician, and I want to state up front that I have no idea “why” the Dollar will weaken, and why the Euro will bounce back. For whatever reason, I would assert that at the moment, an “inflection point” of epic proportions is now directly ahead. Of course, there is always room to speculate where fundamentals are concerned. In markets as super charged as the currency markets are at the moment, an important trend change could come from something as simple as some European finance minister opening his mouth and talking about lower rates. Alternatively, maybe some economic data could trigger a major swing. From the standpoint of the message of the charts, the fundamentals matter little. The charts are shouting out potential “trend change” and that is all we are paying attention to at the current time..."

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