http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...

Leading Russian oil producers, including TNK-BP, BP's Russian affiliate, are grappling with a collapse in profits from the export of Siberian oil.

Heavy export tariffs have almost wiped out the profit margin from selling crude oil outside Russia, forcing Siberian producers to sell at prices as low as $10 a barrel on Russia's domestic market. Fears are mounting that the profits squeeze may speed the decline in Russian oil output, already down 6 per cent this year.

It is looking increasingly likely that while Russia will "talk up" their support of Chavez the likelyhood of real action and investment is going to be far less.

Russia needs a political card to play once Obama starts negotiating. Russia wants to reduce US influence (and missiles) in countries close to it like Poland, Georgia etc. US can't be very comfortable with the Russia's cozy relationship with Venezuela so there could easily be a trade off there. Obama reduces or eliminates the European deals that Russia sees as a threat and in turn Russia backs away from supporting Hugo and Venezuela.

IMO that's the current play and Hugo is just a pawn in the game but he is not smart enough to see it.