The cases are stacking up and i am also wondering about how this plays out. Does Hugo think that he can align VZ with Russia and China and some other less developed countries and tell the developed western world to get lost? Doesn't seem realistic given that Russia and China want to participate actively in the international finance system. Maybe he thinks that even if VZ loses or settles voluntarily that VZ picks up assets at bargain prices and that ultimately that can't be bad.
I have been reading about ICSID cases and one thing that stands out is that it is very easy to establish the amount that has been invested in a project and very difficult to establish future revenues and profits that are lost because of contract breach, nationalisation or whatever. This is the real thorny issue in these cases. In the Exxon case VZ offered what they thought was a fair price for the assets. Exxon wants compensation for what they would have made if VZ had left everything as it was. The two sides are miles apart.
Vanessa asked for a little over a billion dollars in compensation which included compensation for lost profit etc..
Frankly even if we were to get a billion it won't go that far given our 300 million or so shares. It wouldn't even bring some people here back above water. Hugo used the figure of 35 billion for LC and LB. In Hugo think, if you can get 35 billion in assets for a few hundred million or even a couple of billion then it probably makes sense to grab it. He can sell this to his people as a good move.
KRY needs to start sharpening their pencils and preparing a comprehensive , fully justified financial picture that establishes beyond question amounts for lost revenue and profit. We cannot take for granted that we will be adequately compensated for what we think we would have had unless this is done properly.
While I certainly hope that this never goes that far, I do know that it is only common sense to prepare for the worst case scenario. If we have to go the distance in arbitration then lets at least make sure we've dotted the I's and crossed the T's.