Well if you amortize the investment needed of say $10 billion a year just to keep up with depletion over say 2.5 million barrels a day it comes out to almost $11 a barrel on top of the direct production cost that is somewhere under $10. That would make his production and reinvestment cost about $20 a barrel.

And remember that he sells some of his oil at a discount to buy friends. Those evil foreign oil companies that do most of the real work get a cut too, which leaves him with a lot less than he needs.

Don't worry, as long as oil stays low for just 12-18 months, and by low I mean under say $70 for WTI (west texas intermediate) crude, Hugo is in a hole that he cannot get out of with Western investment. The current price is just killing him. Pretty unlikely that he gets Western help considering how he treated everyone the last couple years.