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Venezuelan hairy economy

posted on Feb 09, 2009 11:11AM
Chavez Says Economic Crisis Hasn’t Touched Venezuela (Update1)

By Matthew Walter

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said the global economic crisis hasn’t touched “even a hair” of the Venezuelan economy, even as the plunge in oil prices slashes export revenue for the OPEC member country.

Venezuela’s savings, built up in international reserves and development funds, and its implementation of foreign exchange controls helped it prepare for the drop in oil prices, Chavez said yesterday in an interview with the Venevision network.

“Not even a hair has been touched,” Chavez said. “Why? Because this is a solid economy. If you ask me what measures need to be taken, I’ll say we’ve been taking them for some time.”

Chavez is entering the final week of his political campaign for a Feb. 15 referendum to amend the constitution to allow him to seek another term in 2012. Caracas-based Banco Mercantil said last week that Venezuela’s economy will come to a near standstill this year and public financing needs will surge.

Gross domestic product will likely expand 0.4 percent in 2009, down from 4.9 percent in 2008, and the government’s financing needs will rise to $31.4 billion, up from $6.3 billion last year, the bank said.

Oil accounts for 93 percent of Venezuela exports and crude oil prices have dropped 71 percent since touching a record in July. Crude oil for March delivery rose $1.33, or 3.3 percent, to $41.50 a barrel at 11:43 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crisis

Chavez said that oil prices rose to “speculative levels” last year, when they approached $150 a barrel. He said prices are “rebounding” and will continue to stabilize.

Venezuela’s central bank said today that the global economic crisis has had a “minimal impact” on the country, and that it is closely monitoring the situation to guarantee that the country’s system of payments and the financial system continue to operate normally.

The bank transferred $12 billion of its international reserves, or 29 percent of its total, to the government’s National Development Fund last month in a single day. Chavez has said he’ll use the funds to maintain spending on development projects while oil prices remain low.

Morgan Stanley economist Boris Segura predicts that the government will spend much of its savings in 2009, and that continued capital flight by the private sector next year will draw down international reserves.

“With $45 billion in liquid assets, the public sector is likely to be able to plug its financing needs” this year, Segura wrote today in a note to investors. “However, the balance-of-payments position in 2010 looks precarious.”

Curbing Inflation

The government hasn’t met its inflation goals, in part because of price speculation in the private sector, Chavez said. Venezuelan consumer prices rose 30.7 percent in January from a year earlier, the highest annual inflation rate in Latin America.

Chavez said that curbing inflation is a “battle for everyone.”

On whether the slowdown in economic growth worldwide will eventually affect Venezuela, Chavez said it “depends on how long this crisis lasts.”

The self-proclaimed socialist president said that crime and corruption are problems that his government will tackle during his next four years in office. Under current term limits, Chavez must step down in 2013.

Polls show that Venezuelans are split on whether to eliminate term limits from the constitution ahead of this month’s vote.

In a January survey by Datanalisis, 51 percent supported the amendment, while 48 percent were against it. The poll of 1,300 people had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.72 percentage points. Venezuelans will vote yes or no on the question.

“We will recognize the result, as we always have, whatever it is,” Chavez said. “I have complete certainty that the ‘yes’ is going to win.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Walter in Caracas at mwalter4@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: February 9, 2009 12:08 EST
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