Can anyone explain just what kind of defense could Venezuela present to the ICSID?

Nothing other than procedural issues to slow things a bit. KRY has been all over their own obligations under the MOA as far as I can tell.

Under the BIT, even any kind of expropriation (like changed environmental law) does not cut it without full compensation. It is really pretty straightforward under the BIT: perform your contract or pay damgages to make the other party whole.

Be assured that I would much rather see a permit than any litigation, but anything involving RML probably also would result in our giving up a right to arbitrate as it would not be in the interests of RML to do so.

Not to mention that under current circumstances RML does not have the balance sheet to do anything. Others may speculate on RML's contacts and existing investors, but IMO until RML actually has the money they are just a joke.