wide ranging discussion today
posted on
Apr 11, 2009 02:25PM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
When nzranger posted the Shortsqueeze numbers what really popped out at me was the institutional holders not the shorts- allthough anyone shorting at this level better know what they are doing.
I seem to recall KRY being around 35% on the institutional holdings now we are closer to 28%.
Since reading posts from G, MOM, and others I accept that there was tax selling and reductions in holdings for various reasons (eg. like gold peaking simultaniously with a stalled economy, and lousy X-mas retail sales which translated to no inflation risk). Also after all the waiting recently without any definite KRY news, I would rank the institutional holding percentage decrase and/or not buying back as a minor event.
The idea that many could or would sell here now @.25 really does not need to be discussed. The reason I say this is every investors average share price and the amount of shares they are each holding are different but, each investors opinion on the potential value of Kry is going to determine where to sell (or buy more).
I am going to discuss my real numbers and some opinion.
Through all the years of relative non-movement on the construction permit, I have been in a wait and see mode. Even though my expectations for a positive outcome and high share price have diminished tremendously from the Cramer days, I still have a positive outlook. Back in those days my KRY stock went from $4.50 to $6, but because I was uninformed, unaware and had no stock market experience, I did not sell any of it. Now I know- What a huge unrealized gain! I would never let that happen again. In retrospect, the talk of 8, 10, even 15 Dollars per share on the boards really screwed up any momentary rational thinking I might have had. I remember someone at Yahoo having an opinion that the stock could go to $40 and had the math to prove it. The day I bought my first KRY I belived I was going to make a killing and it was a 100% shure deal. My plan was to sell half at $8 or $9 and hold the rest, great plan right? So had every thing gone that way, I was looking at a 100% gain and then possibly what? I could have lost some or made some more...........
Today, my expectations for a positive outcome (via- either permit, thru arbitration or a buyout offer for my shares) is greatly diminished and if I had to put a number on it, I would say my guess is a two out of three chance. I also bought more around .50 on the way down and a good amount @ .25 and @.12 so now my average is about 93 cents per share. This is why I think discussion of selling @ .25 cents (at least for me) is a waste. Most who bought @ under .15 cents are long gone and most retail longs averages are much higher than .25 cents. I think any positive news would drive the PPS over my basis. I now figure that two dollars would be a good place to start selling at least half, I now own five times the amount of KRY stock that I did @ $4.50, interesting? So even though my percieved risk is greater, so are my potential gains- FIVE times greater at $2.00 versus what I would have profited selling my original KRY investment @ $8-9 dollars (my original plan). But remember, I have invested 20% more in moola to knock down the basis.
Some have agreed that there is going to be a lot of selling by retail just to get out at "even money", maybe around a buck. This is all really going to depend on what the announcement is, how it is presented, what the situation on the ground in Venezuela is, financing, etc. There will be a miriad of considerations for any scenerio. Induvidual investors will then have to determine their own induvidual situations and needs, and take actions buying or selling based on those induvidual needs. My thoughts about what could happen and my financial strategy is mine and it is based on my assesment of the situation as it is presented itself up to this moment. But $2 on my part is just a guess and a ballpark figure because there are just too many outcome scenerios to plan for. This stock could be .01 to infinity depending on just how it plays out. Even though I offer my thoughts for your consideration, they may not be good for everyone, I hope my perspective may help someone.
Good luck and have a good time! (not trying to save anyone) Hondo.