"RM from KRY has been assuring us that their dialog with the Venezualan government has been supportive (while the MinAmb has been ineffective and incompetent). This makes two possible scenarios"

Eddy I'll add another scenario...Both GRZ and KRY have both said in the past that they have been discussing with VZ gov't officials. Of course nobody knows who those officials are and what they have been talking about.

Maybe it has just been Mibam mainly they have both been speaking with and nothing has changed as far as they are concerned and maybe even the VZ gov't as a whole. Maybe just maybe Ortega is still the main thorn in all of this and that is who they have still not come to agreement with. Maybe the VZ gov't is all for GRZ and KRY but they don't know what to do about the Ortega issue. IMO it still comes down to Chavez making the call and overriding Ortega.

A good point to make is that last year Ortega seemed to be making all the trips with Chavez....recently she has not been with him and instead its been Sanz. Whether that is good for us or not, I guess we'll find out.