OpsGal (and the Peanut Gallery peeking over your shoulder),

The trading range of a few pennies along with the low volume makes the trends and this most recent cycle very difficult to discern. My current best guess is that the technicals show KRY sp at the top of a “cycle” and trying to break the overall downtrend. The downward move in the cycle, which may have been masked, determines if the downtrend continues or is broken. Going out to the end of May would be tough for me to read in the charts. Chicken bonz work better for that, and every time I roll dem bonz they say, “Wait, for News.”

However, the recent KRY charts could be considered Bullish if looked at in certain ways. And, not necessarily with rose colored glasses. I do not wear glasses anyway, although I should.

The Argument of a Bullish Case:

Using the Daily High on Mar 30 followed by the Daily low on Apr 6-7. A higher low was made on Apr 16-17. then a higher-high was made on Apr 20-21. Then another higher low was made on Apr 27. These higher-highs and higher-lows are preliminary indications of a reversal of the current downtrend.

It is difficult to tell the where the current cycle is from KRY sp candlesticks, so using Daily Stoch it shows as being Bearish Fri, then to Bullish on Mon, Tue, Wed, then back to Bearish on Thurs into Fri. Therefore, in this case, Friday's candlestick would be a "Hammer" rather then a "Hanging Man" as in MoM's post of the charts (notice in the first chart how the Bull and Bear events are literally on top of each other in recent weeks). Typically, a “Hanging Man” (Bearish) happens at the top of the cycle, and Friday, according to the Stoch, KRY trading was in Bear mode. Plus, Friday’s “Hanging Man” was clear (or green) because of buying. A “Real” Hanging Man is filled (or red) even if some of the ‘books’ say otherwise, but when clear (or green) is considered a weak Bearish signal. Looks more like a “Hammer” in this case and a “Hammer” candlestick is a Bullish signal.

It was noted in my post of “Thursday Trading” that the Daily lows through Wed were getting higher. The Daily lows continued to climb through last Fri. In other words, the Daily sp chart shows the lows "stepping up" all week. This is definitely a set of candlesticks called an “Ascending Triangle.” An “Ascending triangle” set of candlesticks is a Bullish signal.

So, the Bullish Case predicts significant upside this coming week, or at least early in the week. However, when a stock is trading where KRY sp is trading, a penny move is around 3%+, which is a pretty darn-good move on a daily, even weekly, basis and may be considered significant. Please understand that the techs/charts and candlesticks work well - when they work. Otherwise, we pull out the bonz…

And now, to be fair, The Bearish Case:

Going back to the high of March 9-10, the most recent high of APR 20-21 is a lower-high. The March 4-5 low then was followed by a lower-low on Apr 6-7. Lower-highs with lower-lows signify a downtrend. Currently at the top of the cycle and with the next down cycle breaking through 0.2100 then it is continued Bear Claws. OBV has been pretty much flat since mid-Feb and is tired of giving support, so more Bearishness. Stoch and Mac recently topped and signifying time to get out. All of last week’s Daily closes are “paints” and is falsely “painting” the upper bound of the ascending triangle, so there really is no triangle. Lastly, a Bear would think Friday’s candlestick really is a “Hanging Man” that confirms the Stoch crossing into Bearishness.

Again, the techs/charts and candlesticks work very well - when they work. Technically, when the graphs and candlesticks are in agreement it is like magic when there is no News. Technically, the important KRY sp at this particular moment in time is 0.2100. Cycle down and stay above and it says Bullish, go below and it is Bearish. News always trumps the techs on any stock, and it is News that will drive KRY sp more than anything else.

Finally, an aside - Prezone posted a link to a video showing charts of several stocks. I would agree on the ABX call, kinda warm to PAAS, and disagree on BVN and DR, while neutral on NAK (personal fave, although every time I post over there I hear crickets in the background) and GDX. Actually would play GLD rather than GDX, but that would be just me. Use your DD before hitting the “buy” button as the Market is still quite volatile and can be unforgiving.