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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: GRZ and KRY

GRZ and KRY

posted on Nov 02, 2009 07:28PM

I think that a lot of posters here are trying to link GRZ's nice move in recent times and today in particular with some unknown event in Venezuela..

IMO, GRZ has now moved past Brisas and Venezuela, and the arbitration is looked at by the market as a nice possible (and I stress possible) bonus some time in the future but it is not driving the share price.

Filing for arbitration has drawn a line under GRZ's adventure in Venezuela and the uncertainty discount has been reduced. They have cash and new mining equipment available to put into a new project elsewhere and they have already announced several times that they were looking for a deal that would put those assets to work. We can assume such a deal won't be in Venezuela. GRZ's bond holders seem to be reasonably content and the company has the option of paying them out in stock so they can't cause a run on the cash in the near term. With fewer than 60 million shares issued, GRZ's volumes are always going to be lower than KRY's but the smaller float tends to exaggerate moves.

IMO this current move in GRZ is an anticipation of a future deal which may or may not come to pass, but with the certainty that GRZ has really dumped all Venezuelan projects save the legal cleanup, the market now sees the possibility of a new future for GRZ. The current price is after all only the cash and equipment value and allows nothing for any arbitration gains down the track.

Once KRY gets some firm plans announced and implemented I expect it will go up as well; it is the uncertainty that the market hates and uncertainty when dealing with Hugo Chavez is even worse than most.....

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