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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: My glass half full attempt

My glass half full attempt

posted on Nov 17, 2009 09:20PM

O.K. - This is for Pend and the rest of the glass half fullers:

Consider the volume these two days: Over 40 million shares, which is almost 15% of the outstanding shares (excluding warrants etc...just what is trading)

Couple that with the gradually increasing volume we've seen....what does that mean?

As stocks turnover ownership at the bottom of a cycle, they change hands from people who rode the stock down and are disgusted and negative to those who believe they are buying at the bottom with an expectation of a profit.

Our problem is that this is mostly a retail stock and retail investors typically buy late and sell early only to buy back early and add to losses. KRY has been a nightmare for most retail holders starting with those who held through the permit denial and continuing to those who bought in when the permit was being reconsidered....it's been a steady drop.

In order for stocks to drop there must be people willing to sell. People sell because they believe there is no chance for it to rise at least for now.

As sellers turnover the general "attitude" of a stock changes from pessimism to optimism. New buyers thinking to take a chance find it more difficult to buy since there are fewer people willing to sell....and this moves us up and often leads to momentum.

My concern for KRY has always been that we had nothing to give us momentum. I saw negotiations as going nowhere and it was my belief that an arbitration filing would give us enough momentum to help turnover shares from pessimists to optimists.

While none of us knows the reasons for this move, it HAS accomplished what I wanted to see. We have a significant turnover in share ownership which may change the atmosphere. In my trading life I made good money off playing this kind of move.

We very may likely move further down, but keep in mind a whole lot of people got in at these levels that last two days and they have different expectations. If we remain volatile (God I hope so) I would encourage those who are comfortable with it to try trading a bit around your core holdings. I did that all the way from $6 to $1.60 making money even as my core lost it...until Ortega.

People who want in will try to create impressions of pain in order to get more people to sell. Just remember that a growing majority of fellow shareholders are even or in the black and they want to go higher.

Keep your own personal expectations in the forefront and if those still are to see a deal/settlement or arbitration, then now would be the worst time to sell.

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